AUD/USD nears 0.6760 after RBA’s Debelle’s speech, eyes on Aussie jobs report for now


  • AUD/USD remains mostly unchanged after the RBA policymaker’s comments.
  • The shift in risk-tone keeps the Aussie volatile amid trade/Brexit uncertainties.
  • Wednesday’s optimism followed by the recent downbeat comments from the US Treasury Secretary and increasing odds of a Brexit deal.

With the RBA’s Deputy Governor shrugging off weakness in the housing sector, AUD/USD stays mostly unchanged around 0.6760 amid the initial Asian trading session on Thursday.

Guy Debelle said that rate cuts have taken account of the expected evolution of the housing cycle, which in turn cuts the odds of housing market weakness to support further rate cuts.

Read More: RBA Assistant Governor: Rate cuts have taken account of the expected evolution of the housing cycle

The Aussie pair has managed to bounce on Wednesday after two consecutive negative daily closings.

Risk sentiment has been very volatile off-late as mixed signals from the US-China trade deal and Brexit confuses global traders. The United States’ (US) President Donald Trump tried restoring investor confidence after Beijing criticized the bill that will increase intervention to Hong Kong. Following that, the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin cited the lack of progress in the trade talks with China while waiting for further signals from the other side and being ready to put forward more tensed issues forward during the second round.

Elsewhere, the European Union (EU) is likely to allow the United Kingdom (UK) to depart with a deal but the uncertainty still lies as the UK Prime Minister (PM) needs Parliamentary approval for the same, which seems hard at this moment.

With this, the US 10-year treasury yields take rounds to 1.745% with close to two basis points (bps) of declines.

Traders will now keep a close eye over Australia’s employment data for September. While unemployment and participation rates are likely to remain unchanged at 5.3% and 66.2% respectively, expectedly soft employment change, to 15.0K from 34.7K, could pull the pair backward.

Following the data, the US housing and manufacturing numbers could join the Fedspeak and comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe to offer a busy session during the later part of the day.

Technical Analysis

While a sustained break above monthly tops nearing 0.6810 becomes necessary to push bulls towards 0.6850, pair’s downside beneath near-term rising trend-line, at 0.6740 now, could recall 0.6700 back to the chart.

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