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AUD/USD hovers above 0.7300 amid anxiety over Ukraine-Russia peace talks

  • AUD/USD seesaws inside the 30-pip range after rising the most in two weeks.
  • Hopes of Ukraine diplomacy triggered initial upside but optimism fades on headlines from Russia, US.
  • RBA’s Lowe sounded less dovish, Aussie PM Morrison declared a national emergency on ease coast floods.
  • Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations, US CPI and Ukraine-Russia talks in Turkey are the key catalysts to watch for fresh impulse.

AUD/USD struggles to extend the biggest daily jump in a fortnight amid cautious mood ahead of Ukraine-Russia negotiations, making rounds to 0.7315-20 during early Thursday morning in Asia.

While posting the biggest daily rise in two weeks, the risk-barometer pair also snapped the previous two-day downtrend on Wednesday as market sentiment improved on concerns that Ukraine’s diplomacy may help overcome the geopolitical tussle with Russia. However, the latest headlines suggesting the noise to remain on the table, at least from Moscow’s side, have weighed on the AUD/USD prices of late, which in turn kept the quote inside a 0.7310-40 area recently.

Comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, suggesting that We are prepared for certain compromises, Russia also needs to compromise seemed to have boosted the market’s mood. Previously, Ukraine’s dumping of a plan to join NATO and the start of the first human corridor to evacuate Ukrainian civilians helped to improve the mood.

On the contrary, Russian State Media mentioned that the Russian delegation at peace talks with Ukraine will not concede anything. Furthermore, the White House (WH) confronted the allegations that the US used chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine.

Elsewhere, Australian media ABC News said, “Prime Minister Scott Morrison has declared a national emergency in response to catastrophic floods in northern New South Wales." Before that, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe spoke at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit. The policymaker initially said, “Plausible the cash rate will be increased later this year,” before stating, “Closer to point where inflation sustainably in the target range, but not there yet.”

Talking about data, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in better than forecast in February while Australia’s march month Westpac Consumer Confidence dropped to  -4.2% versus -1.1% expected and -1.3% prior. On the other hand, the US JOLTS Job Openings eased to 11.3 million in January from 11.4 million prior.

Amid these plays, Wall Street benchmarks rallied and so did the US 10-year Treasury yields. The risk-on mood also weighed on the safe-haven demand of gold that declined almost $90.00.

Moving on, the market’s attention will be on the Ukraine-Russia talks in Turkey. However, Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for March, expected to remain unchanged at 4.6%, and the US CPI for February, likely rising to 7.9% from 7.5% prior, will decorate the calendar.

Read: US February CPI Preview: Will hot inflation force Fed’s hand?

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond the 200-DMA level surrounding 0.7315 defies the early-week pullback, suggesting further upside towards the 0.7400 threshold before challenging the latest top near 0.7440.

Additional important levels 

Overview
Today last price0.732
Today Daily Change0.0050
Today Daily Change %0.69%
Today daily open0.727
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.7224
Daily SMA500.7193
Daily SMA1000.7233
Daily SMA2000.732
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.7348
Previous Daily Low0.7244
Previous Weekly High0.7381
Previous Weekly Low0.7158
Previous Monthly High0.7286
Previous Monthly Low0.7032
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.7284
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.7309
Daily Pivot Point S10.7227
Daily Pivot Point S20.7184
Daily Pivot Point S30.7123
Daily Pivot Point R10.7331
Daily Pivot Point R20.7391
Daily Pivot Point R30.7435

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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