|

AUD/USD frothing on Fed reaction, but sticking to the midrange near 0.6375

  • The AUD/USD is churning chart paper around 0.6375 as markets digest the Fed's rate hold.
  • Fed holds rates steady at 5.25%, Powell says no decisions on future meetings.
  • Next Up: Australian September Trade Balance, US NFP Friday.

The AUD/USD is frothing in the middle range for Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held their policy rates at 5.25-5.5%, and markets will be turning towards Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) print.

The Aussie (AUD) rebounded against the US Dollar (USD) for the first day of November's trading, lifting from an early low of 0.6318 to tap an intraday high of 0.6394 and is now trading in the middle near 0.6360.

Powell speech: We have not made any decisions on future meetings

The US Fed held rates steady as many market participants expected, but a notable lack of change in the Fed's rate statement is knocking back the market's early bets of one last rate hike for 2023 in December.

Fed Statement comparison: November vs September

Up next for the Antipodeans will be Australia's Trade Balance figures due early Thursday; investors are anticipating a slight reduction in the Aussie Trade Balance from 9.64B to 9.4B.

After that the broader market will be turning eyes towards Friday's US NFP release, which will be taking on additional weight now that the Fed has directed their forward guidance to being limited to near-term data.

Jobs growth is expected to decline but still remain positive for the US, and Friday's NFP is forecast to print at 180K for October compared to September's print of 336K.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook

The Aussie continues to run into technical resistance near the 0.6400 handle as the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) acts as a ceiling on price action near 0.6390, and the pair is cycling tightly in the midrange around the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

AUD/USD bids remain firmly trapped in bear country in the medium-term, and a downside continuation through the 0.6300 handle will see the pair etching in twelve-month lows below 0.6270.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Technical levels

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price0.6358
Today Daily Change0.0021
Today Daily Change %0.33
Today daily open0.6337
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.635
Daily SMA500.6393
Daily SMA1000.6527
Daily SMA2000.6631
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.6377
Previous Daily Low0.6315
Previous Weekly High0.64
Previous Weekly Low0.627
Previous Monthly High0.6445
Previous Monthly Low0.627
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.6338
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.6353
Daily Pivot Point S10.6309
Daily Pivot Point S20.6281
Daily Pivot Point S30.6247
Daily Pivot Point R10.6371
Daily Pivot Point R20.6405
Daily Pivot Point R30.6433

Author

Joshua Gibson

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

More from Joshua Gibson
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD eases toward 1.1700 as USD recovers

EUR/USD stays on the back foot and declines toward 1.1700 on Friday. The pair faces headwinds from a renewed uptick in the US Dollar as investors look past softer US inflation data. However, the EUR/USD downside appears capped by expectations of the Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence. 

GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders assess BoE policy outlook

Following Thursday's volatile session, GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3400 on Friday. Investors reassess the Bank of England's policy oıtlook after the MPC decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps by a slim margin. Meanwhile, the US Dollar benefits from the cautious market stance, limiting the pair's upside.

Gold stays weak below $4,350 as USD bulls shrug off softer US CPI

Gold holds the previous day's late pullback from the vicinity of the record high and stays in the red below $4,350 in the European session on Friday. The US CPI report released on Thursday pointed to cooling inflationary pressures, but the US Dollar seems resilient amid a fresh bout of short-covering.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple correction slide as BoJ rate decision weighs on sentiment

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are extending their correction phases after losing nearly 3%, 8%, and 10%, respectively, through Friday. The pullback phase is further strengthened as the upcoming Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Friday weighs on risk sentiment, with BTC breaking key support, ETH deepening weekly losses, and XRP sliding to multi-month lows.

How much can one month of soft inflation change the Fed’s mind?

One month of softer inflation data is rarely enough to shift Federal Reserve policy on its own, but in a market highly sensitive to every data point, even a single reading can reshape expectations. November’s inflation report offered a welcome sign of cooling price pressures. 

Ethereum Price Forecast: EF outlines ways to solve growing state issues

Ethereum price today: $2,920. The EF noted that Ethereum's growing state could lead to centralization and weaken censorship resistance. The Stateless Consensus team outlined state expiry, state archive and partial statelessness as potential solutions to the growing state load.