AUD/USD falls back to lows of the day after release of US data

AUD/USD declines back down to the 0.6580s.
Aussie employment data and Fed meeting outcome had boosted the pair early on Thursday.
Upbeat US data saw AUD/USD fall back down, however, during the US session.

Joaquin Monfort FXStreet

AUD/USD trades back down at the lows of the day, during the US session on Thursday, after a batch of relatively strong American data helped the US Dollar (USD) claw back lost ground.

The pair had been rising after the Australian Dollar (AUD) got a boost from data showing an unexpected fall in Australian unemployment and a much higher-than-expected increase in the number of people in employment down under.

The release of US PMI data for March, Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index all supported the USD and saw the pair fall back close to the day’s lows in the 0.6580s.

US S&P Global Composite PMI came out at 52.2, holding above the 50 level that distinguishes expansion from contraction. US Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.5, beating estimates and previous figures. Services PMI, however, undershot expectations and previous results, coming out at 51.7 in March.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came out higher than estimated at 3.2, and Initial Jobless Claims at 210K were lower than the 215K forecast.

AUD/USD rallied on Wednesday, triggered by US Dollar (USD) weakness after the Federal Reserve (Fed) March policy meeting.

At the meeting the Fed reaffirmed they would still be cutting interest rates by roughly three quarters of a percent in 2024 despite speculation they would reduce rate cuts because of recent warmer-than-expected inflation reading.

Early on Thursday the pair continued rising after it was revealed Australia added 116,500 new employees in February and saw its Unemployment Rate fall to 3.7% from 4.1%, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The figures beat economists expectations of a 40,000 increase in employees and unemployment at 4.0%.

The data supports the outlook for the Australian economy, is likely indicative of higher wage inflation going forward and suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have to keep interest rates higher for longer. Higher interest rates are positive for currencies as they attract greater inflows of foreign capital.

The technical picture shows the AUD/USD pair oscillating in a range between roughly 0.6480 and 0.6650.

Australian Dollar versus US Dollar: 4-hour chart

The pair is currently turning around at the range highs and looking vulnerable to selling off.

A continued move lower could see it return to the base of the range. Alternatively a break above the 0.6668 highs would provide confirmation of a higher high and the formation of a bullish short-term trend.

Author

Joaquin Monfort

FXStreet

Joaquin Monfort is a financial writer and analyst with over 10 years experience writing about financial markets and alt data. He holds a degree in Anthropology from London University and a Diploma in Technical analysis.

AUD/USD pulls back from monthly high but holds above 0.7000

AUD/USD retreats from the monthly high set earlier this Thursday, sliding back to 0.7000 during the Asian session as a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East undermines the risk-sensitive Aussie. However, recent hawkish comments from RBA officials could support the Australian Dollar. Furthermore, the prevailing US Dollar selling bias, despite Fed hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties, could limit losses for the pair.

USD/JPY declines to a one-week low; eyes trading range support near 157.50 on weaker USD

USD/JPY drops to a one-week low during Thursday’s Asian session, with bears now awaiting a break below multi-week range support near mid-157.00s before placing fresh bets amid a broadly weaker US Dollar. Despite bets for a December Fed rate hike and Middle East jitters, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps USD depressed near a three-week low. Moreover, hawkish BoJ expectations and intervention risks underpin the Japanese Yen, further weighing on the currency pair.

Gold bounces off monthly low as USD selling remains unabated amid falling bond yields

Gold pares heavy intraday losses to the monthly trough, though it retains an intraday bearish tone below $4,100 during Thursday’s early European session. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated as Federal Reserve officials recently signaled there is no urgency to raise interest rates at the upcoming October 27–28 meeting. Furthermore, US bond yields extend their retracement slide from multi-year highs, keeping USD bulls on the back foot and offering some support to the precious metal.

Dogecoin stays weak despite whales and new deal

Dogecoin price remains under pressure, trading below $0.081 despite a modest rebound earlier this week. Santiment data shows signs of accumulation, and Wednesday’s announcement of a Dogecoin Labs partnership with the Dogecoin Foundation adds a mildly bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives metrics and weakening momentum indicators continue to limit the meme coin recovery.

Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs with the AI trade, led by a bank

The Dow Jones Industrial Average got most of its share of Wednesday's artificial intelligence (AI) rally from a bank and a bulldozer maker. The index closed near 52,800, its highest close since early September. SpaceX (SPCX) reported 161% revenue growth and the Nasdaq Composite rose more than 1%, but under price weighting the gains that counted most belonged to Goldman Sachs (GS) and Caterpillar (CAT).

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.