AUD/USD fails to hold above 0.7200 level again, focus on geopolitics and Q4 Aussie wage figures next week

AUD/USD failed to hold above 0.7200 for a third successive session, as geopolitical angst underpinned US dollar demand.
Geopolitics will be the highlight for the pair next week, though Aussie Q4 wage data will also be key.

Joel Frank Independent Analyst

AUD/USD failed to hold to the north of the 0.7200 level for a third successive session, despite solid jobs data earlier in the week keeping calls for RBA monetary tightening in H2 this year alive. At current levels in the 0.7170s, AUD/USD is trading a touch lower on the day, though still looks on course to gain about 0.7% on the week, which would mark the pair’s third successive week. Resilience in copper and gold prices has been largely negative, as far as the commodity-sensitive Aussie is concerned, by slightly lower oil and iron ore prices on the week.

Geopolitical tensions between Russia, Ukraine and NATO remain elevated as Russia continues to amass troops on Ukraine’s border and violence in Eastern Ukraine between government and separatist forces escalates, underpinning the US dollar on the final trading day of the week. That is likely the main reason why AUD/USD hasn’t been able to hold above the 0.7200 handle on Friday, or mount an attempt at testing last week’s high at 0.7250.

AUD’s resilience to the escalating geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe will be put to the test once more next week with a key face-to-face meeting between US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in focus. Any signs the two sides come to some sort of agreement to de-escalate things could help propel the pair back above monthly highs and back towards 2022 highs in the 0.7300 area.

Otherwise, the highlight of next week’s economic calendar will be Australian Q4 Wage Price Index data out on Wednesday. An upside surprise could be the final piece in the puzzle for the RBA to formally signal rate hikes in 2022, as money markets continue to bet they will get started hiking sometime around the middle of the year. Elsewhere on the economic calendar, flash Aussie and US PMI survey results for February and the US January Core PCE inflation report could be market moving, while Fed speak will as ever be worth monitoring.

AUD/Usd

Overview
Today last price	0.7182
Today Daily Change	-0.0009
Today Daily Change %	-0.13
Today daily open	0.7191

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.7128
Daily SMA50	0.7173
Daily SMA100	0.7245
Daily SMA200	0.7352

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.7218
Previous Daily Low	0.715
Previous Weekly High	0.725
Previous Weekly Low	0.7064
Previous Monthly High	0.7315
Previous Monthly Low	0.6966
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.7176
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.7192
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.7154
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.7118
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.7086
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.7223
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.7255
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.7291

Author

Joel Frank

Independent Analyst

Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018, specialising in the coverage of how developments in the global economy impact financial asset

Japanese Yen gains ground as traders await Fed rate decision

The USD/JPY pair loses ground to near 160.25 during the early European trading hours. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh later on Wednesday.

AUD/USD stays pressured; holds above 0.7050 as traders await Fed decision

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia-inspired bounce and trades with a negative bias for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, hold above the 0.7050 level as traders opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting before placing fresh directional bets.

Gold keeps the bid tone unchanged, looks at Fed

Gold extends its weekly recovery on Wednesday, re-shifting its attention to the $4,400 mark per troy ounce as market participants await fresh guidance from the Fed. With the FOMC policy announcement and revised economic projections due later in the day, traders are opting for caution, somehow limiting the yellow metal’s upside potential.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP trim breakout gains as focus shifts to Fed decision

Cryptocurrency prices broadly decline as investors show caution toward risk assets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve set to hold interest rates in Warsh's debut as chair

The United States Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday, another pivotal meeting for markets to gauge the stance of policymakers and new Chair Kevin Warsh as energy prices retreat after the United States and Iran reached a framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Why a hawkish RBA is no longer enough to lift the Australian Dollar

The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered more than what markets expected: a hawkish hold that should have supported the Aussie. But markets widely ignored it, focusing instead on slowing economic growth and proving that central bank messaging alone isn’t always enough to drive currencies.