AUD/USD continues its two-day fall, breaks below 0.7400 amid positive US Nonfarm Payrolls

AUD/USD extends its two-day slide on the week, dipped to a new weekly low around 0.7359, but bounced off on a better than expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report, though still losing 0.14% trading at 0.7391 during the New York session at the time of writing.

US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 534K, better than the 425K expected

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unveiled the Nonfarm Payrolls report for October, which showed the creation of 531K new jobs added to the US economy, better than the 425K estimated by analysts. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.6% from 4.7%, while labor force participation was unchanged.

Last month's figures leave payrolls short 4.2 million beneath the pre-pandemic level. Another positive of the report is that Unemployment rates for White and Hispanic Americans fell, while the African American and the Asian rates were unchanged.

The Reserve Bank of Australia pushes back the first rate hike until 2024

An additional factor to the weakness of the Australian dollar is that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA, which pushed back higher interest rates until 2024, according to the RBA Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP). 

Dissecting the SoMP, it also says that the economy will expand by 3% in 2021, despite the severe contraction of the third quarter, due to COVID-19 lockdowns. The RBA sees an acceleration in economic growth by 5.5% in 2022. Regarding inflationary pressures, the RBA expects wages to grow 3% and inflation to 2.5%, the mid-point of the RBA objective by the end of 2023.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, the AUD/USD just bounced off the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 0.7362, and now it is on its way to a renewed test of the 0.7400 figure. On its way, it pased through the 100-DMA, which turned support at 0.7377. Despite all that, the AUD/USD has a downward bias, confirmed by the 200-DMA sitting at 0.7549 above the spot price, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46, aims lower.

For AUD/USD to accelerate the downtrend, they need a daily close below the 50-DMA. In that outcome, the following support would be the September 24 high at 0.7315. A breach of the latter would expose the September 30 low at 0.7169.

On the flip side, AUD/USD buyers will need a daily close above 0.7400 if they still hope for higher prices. The following resistance area would be the October 22 low at 0.7453, followed by 0.7500.