AUD/USD climbs into a four-month high, bulls aim for 0.6800

AUD/USD hit a four-month high in early Thursday on Australian data beats.
Broad-market risk rally fueled by Fed rate cut expectations extends into a second day.
Australian PMI figures due early Friday, US PMIs to close out the trading week.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The AUD/USD tapped a four-month high of 0.6728 in early Thursday trading, with the Aussie (AUD) extending a Fed-fueled risk rally after Australian labor figures beat the street, and the US Dollar (USD) tumbles across the broader FX market.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) pivoted on its monetary policy outlook on Wednesday, tabling interest rate cut discussions for the first time in years. Fed policymakers currently expect 75 basis points in interest rate cuts through the end of 2024.

The US Dollar promptly deflated on Fed headlines, and the Aussie extended near-term gains after an unexpected bump in Australian Employment Change figures for November, adding 61.5K jobs versus the expected 11K. October previously added 42.7K new jobs (revised down steeply from 55K).

Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures will wrap up the trading week for both Australia and the US.

Australia’s Judo Bank Preliminary PMI figures for December will print early in the Friday trading session. The Australian economy has struggled of late, and Aussie bidders will be hoping for an improvement in the headline read. The Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI last printed at 47.7 in November, with the Services PMI last printing a flat 46.0.

US PMI figures due later on Friday are expected to show a slight step back, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI seen declining from 49.4 to 49.3, and the Services PMI slipping backto 50.6 from 50.8.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook

Despite Wednesday’s hard rally above the 0.6700 handle, the Aussie is running the risk of getting hung up in a near-term congestion zone as the AUD struggles to develop an extension in bullish momentum following the broader market’s US Dollar rebalance.

0.6720 is hardening into a near-term ceiling for intraday candles, and the struggle for Aussie bulls will be to mount a fresh attack and muscle the AUD/USD over the 0.6730 level to take a fresh run at the 0.6800 handle.

Daily candlesticks have the AUD/USD extending further into chart territory above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and December’s early swing highs into 0.6670 could flip into technical support in the near-term.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Technical Levels

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6712
Today Daily Change	0.0042
Today Daily Change %	0.63
Today daily open	0.667

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6582
Daily SMA50	0.6462
Daily SMA100	0.6461
Daily SMA200	0.6576

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6673
Previous Daily Low	0.6542
Previous Weekly High	0.6691
Previous Weekly Low	0.6526
Previous Monthly High	0.6677
Previous Monthly Low	0.6318
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6623
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6592
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6584
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6497
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6452
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6715
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.676
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6847

(This story was corrected on December 14 at 18:15 GMT to say that the US PMI release on Friday is expected to decline to 49.3, not 94.3.)

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols reportedly spent $638 million to buy back their native tokens in August, up 17% from a year earlier. On the surface, the buyback trend suggests the cryptocurrency industry is maturing fast, adopting one of Wall Street’s oldest tools to bolster valuations and distribute revenue. The headline becomes less impressive once the number is opened up.

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.