AUD/NZD renews multi-day top around 1.0950 on RBA’s second hawkish surprise

AUD/NZD aptly portrays the market’s surprise from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate hike as it jumps nearly 60 pips to the highest levels since late February, around 1.0955 heading into Tuesday’s European session.

The RBA defies market forecasts of announcing no change to its benchmark interest rate by fueling the key rate to 4.10% at the latest, providing the second consecutive hawkish surprise.

Also read: RBA: Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required

Earlier in the day, Australia’s first quarter (Q1) Current Account Balance came in 12.3 billion versus 5.175 billion expected and 14.1 billion prior. Additionally, New Zealand’s (NZ) ANZ Commodity Price Index for May rose past -1.7% prior readings and -0.2% expected figures to 0.3%.

Apart from the RBA moves and data, cautious optimism in the market also underpins Antipodeans, mainly due to the risk-positive headlines surrounding the US-China ties.

Reuters came out with headlines suggesting improvement in the US-China relations, by citing Chinese media, amid early Tuesday in Europe. The news quotes, “a frank, constructive and fruitful communication on promoting Sino-US relations and properly managing differences,” between China's Vice Foreign Minister and a senior US State Department official.

It should be noted, however, that a lack of major data/events elsewhere joins the fears of the policy pivot at the RBA and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to prod the AUD/NZD buyers.

As a result, Wednesday’s speeches from RBA Governor Philip Lowe and Deputy Governor Michele Bullock will be the key to watch for clear directions of the AUD/NZD pair.

Technical analysis

A successful break of the 200-DMA, around 1.0885 by the press time, allows the AUD/NZD buyers to aim for the key resistance line stretched from late October 2022, close to 1.1000 by the press time.