AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Bears attack key support near 1.0630 after Australia employment data, NZ budget

AUD/NZD takes offers to refresh a one-week low around 1.0630 as it bears the burden of the downbeat Australian employment report and optimistic New Zealand annual budget release on early Thursday.

Australia’s headline Employment Change marked a surprise figure of -4.3K in April versus 25K expected and 53K prior whereas the Unemployment Rate jumps to 3.7% from 3.5% prior. On the other hand, New Zealand Treasury expects economy to avoid recession while also anticipating return to budget surplus delayed one year to 2026.

Technically, bearish MACD signals and the AUD/NZD pair’s repeated failures to cross the 21-DMA and 50-DMA, currently marking a convergence around 1.0735, keep the AUD/NZD bears hopeful.

However, an upward-sloping trend line from early April, close to 1.0600 by the press time, and the below-50 RSI (14) line challenge the pair sellers.

Alternatively, recovery moves may aim for the multiple lows marked during the mid-March around 1.0680. Though, the aforementioned DMA confluence near 1.0735 appears a tough nut to crack for the AUD/NZD buyers afterward.

Even if the AUD/NZD pair manages to cross the 1.0735 hurdle, the weekly high of 1.0765 and the monthly peak surrounding 1.0835 may check the bulls before directing them to a downward-sloping resistance line from February 20, around 1.0865 as we write.

Overall, AUD/NZD bears are likely to keep the reins even if a short-term support line restricts downside.

AUD/NZD: Daily chart

Trend: Limited downside expected