Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 3 - Gold to Silver Ratio
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
XAU/USD regains the upside traction and approaches the $2,400 mark, showing some near-term consolidation for the time being. Technical indicators retreat from extreme overbought levels, suggesting that some decline may lie ahead in the short term. Still, a steeper slide remains out of the picture, as XAU/USD refuses to give up while developing its moving averages above all. On this, the 55-day SMA hovers around $2,150 while the 100-day SMA tests the $2,100 zone.
The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD moving further into a consolidative phase, which appears so far capped by the $2,400 level, while the 55-SMA holds the downside for the time being. The longer moving averages maintain their bullish slopes far below the current spot levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator points slightly southwards around 55.
Support levels: 2,359.80 2,345.20 2,333.20
Resistance levels: 2,380.70 2,393.50 2,409.20
Prices of the yellow metal left behind two consecutive daily pullbacks and posted decent gains on Thursday, although another test or surpass of the $2,400 mark per troy ounce remained elusive.
On another front, the US markets kicked off the session in a mixed tone amidst dominating risk-off sentiment that saw the Greenback regain its composure following Wednesday’s marked retracement. A glimpse to other markets showed Asian stocks edging higher and European equities trading mostly on the defensive, while market participants continued to assess the financial meeting between the US, Japan, and South Korea, where these countries pledged to “engage in close consultation" regarding FX markets, after concerns from Tokyo and Seoul regarding the recent significant depreciation of their currencies.
Furthermore, the move higher in bullion came exclusively on the back of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israel is contemplating retribution against Iran after the latter launched a huge attack over the weekend.
In the meantime, US yields regained their smile and rose across the curve, maintaining their trade in the upper end of the recent range
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold (XAU/USD) price fluctuated in a relatively narrow range this week following the record-setting rally. Investors will continue to pay close attention to headlines surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict and scrutinize key macroeconomic data releases from the US next week.
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
USD/JPY whipsaws lower and then higher on alternating risk-on risk-off caused by Middle East tensions. Governor Ueda talks about defending the Yen from further weakness and currency-induced imported inflation. USD/JPY price chart shows bearish Hanging Man forming, boding ill for future price action.
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Oil turns flat for this Friday with markets writing off Middle Eastern tensions during APAC session. WTI Oil prices retreat from $85.00, while Brent dips below $90. The US Dollar Index eases as well on a turnaround from safe haven inflows earlier on the back of headlines.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
In the XAU/USD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Eren Sengezer, notes that Gold carries its bullish potential into early 2024 on prospects of a looser Fed policy, lower US bond yields and a weaker USD. A downturn in the global economy, however, could weigh on demand and limit the precious metal’s gains. A lack of progress in the Fed’s efforts to lower inflation, on the other hand, could cause XAU/USD to turn south. Read more details about the forecast.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the Israel-Hamas dispute in 2023 underscored Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in uncertain times. Further escalation in the Middle East or a resurgence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may push Gold prices higher.
A potential re-election of former President Donald Trump could involve a 10% tariff on foreign goods and a four-year plan to reduce essential Chinese imports. This could complicate the Federal Reserve's task of lowering inflation to the 2% target and strain relations with China, negatively affecting Gold's demand outlook.
This ratio normally goes well during risk aversion, while it falls off during times of risk-on. If this ratio is about to turn, or at key levels where it could turn, the
trader looks to the Equity indices if the risk has indeed been on and if it is about to turn as well.
When the ratio is rising, it means gold is outperforming silver, and when the line is falling, the first term is doing worse, i.e., silver is doing better. In other words, when the ratio is high, the general consensus is that silver is favored. Conversely, a low ratio tends to favor gold and may be a signal it’s a good time to buy the yellow metal. Despite the gold-to-silver ratio fluctuating so wildly, another way of using it is to switch holdings between silver and gold when the ratio swings to historically determined "extremes."
Read more about gold versus silver:
The main indicators that traders should watch to understand where gold is standing are: