Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD picks up, nears $4,900 in risk-off markets

Gold shows a moderate bullish tone on Friday, approaching the $4,900 level.
Weak US labour data and higher hopes of Fed cuts have provided some support to precious metals
Recent Price action suggests a potential Gartley formation, aiming for $5,340

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

Gold (XAU/USD) is trimming some losses on Friday, trading near $4,880 at the time of writing, after bounding from lows at $4.655 during the Asian session. A risk-averse market mood is providing some support to precious metals, although the US Dollar’s strength is keeping upside attempts limited for now.

Gold drew some support from weak US employment data released earlier this week, which has reactivated pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease borrowing costs further. Beyond that, investors have turned averse to risk, following a three-day sell-off on Wall Street that has spilled over into Forex markets, increasing demand for safe havens like Gold.

Technical Analysis. Potential Garltey pattern aiming to $5,340

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trading at $4,876, capped below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), but with technical indicators suggesting an improving momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence's (MACD) negative histogram is contracting, and the MACD line seems about to close above the signal line. The Relative Strength Index has reached a neutral area coming from bearish levels.

The immediate trend remains negative, but Thursday's higher low gives some hope for bulls. The upward turning indicators suggest that the pair would be in a CD leg of a Gartley pattern, aiming towards the 78.6% Fibinacci resistance of last week's sell off, at $5,340.

Before that, however, the precious metal is likely to find resistance at the mentioned 100-period SMA, now around $4,920, and at the weekly high, in the area of $5,100. Support levels are at session lows of $4,655, and Monday's low, at the $4,400 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

GBP/USD remains in two-day highs around 1.3260

GBP/USD adds to Friday’s bounce, gathering fresh traction and flirting with the 1.3270 zone on Monday, or two-day tops. Cable’s decent advance comes despite the move higher in the Greenback and investors’ assessing of UK PM K. Starmer's resignation.

EUR/USD remains close to three-month lows near 1.1450

EUR/USD sets aside Friday’s bounce and trades with modest losses in the mid-1.1400s at the beginning of the week. The continuation of the bid bias in the US Dollar continues to weigh on spot despite improving sentiment from the geopolitical front.

Gold bounces off lows, looks to surpass $4,200

Gold regains composure and leaves behind three-consecutive daily declines on Monday, looking to regain the area above the $4,200 mark per troy ounce. Reports of progress in the latest round of US-Iran talks are helping the precious metal maintain its footing at the start of the week, although the stronger Greenback seems to limit the upside potential for now.

Breaking: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire deal violation

Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a warning to all vessels: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized."

Is Shiba Inu dead or just in a crisis? The data behind SHIB's 95% crash

SHIB, the dog-themed meme coin that became one of the biggest success stories in crypto and turned early buyers into crypto millionaires, is facing tough times. Its price has fallen more than 32% so far this year, and it is down 95% from its all-time high in 2021. Is SHIB simply another fading meme coin, or is the market overlooking a possible recovery story?

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.