Gold Forecast and News
Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000
Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The overnight failure to build on momentum beyond the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favors bearish traders. The subsequent fall, however, finds decent support near the 200-period SMA, warranting some caution. Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA remains above the 200-period SMA, which continues to rise, sketching a mixed backdrop and keeping a consolidative bias within the broader uptrend.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holds below the Signal line near the zero level. Its negative but contracting histogram suggests fading bearish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 45 (neutral). Near-term traction would improve on a close back above the 50-period SMA at 5,026.76, with that level acting as initial resistance, whereas failure to stabilize risks a drift toward the 200-period SMA at 4,691.87, which serves as dynamic support.
A MACD move back above the Signal line and into positive territory, alongside an RSI break through 50, would bolster the recovery; otherwise, momentum remains capped, and price could continue consolidating between these averages.
Fundamental Overview
Bets on more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, bolstered by signs of weakness in the US job market, turn out to be another factor offering support to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, the White House said that diplomacy is US President Donald Trump's first choice for dealing with Iran, but warned that he has military options at his disposal. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and also underpins the safe-haven Gold. Adding to this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) selling provides an additional lift to the precious metal. However, expectations that the incoming Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, will be less dovish might cap the non-yielding yellow metal, warranting some caution before positioning for further gains.
Gold draws support from safe-haven flows, Fed rate cut bets, modest USD weakness
Asian stocks extended losses into a second day as a selloff on Wall Street intensified amid a global rout in tech equities. Adding to this, prospects for lower interest rates in the US assist the non-yielding Gold to reverse an Asian session slide to the $4,655 area on Friday.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will deliver at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. The bets were reaffirmed by this week's US data, which pointed to weakness in the labor market.
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute reported on Wednesday that private-sector employers added 22K new jobs in January. This marked a notable decline from the previous month's downwardly revised reading of 37K and missed estimates of a 48K rise.
Adding to this, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Thursday revealed that the number of job openings on the last business day of December stood at 6.542 million, compared to the previous month's downwardly revised print of 6.928 million.
Furthermore, the US Department of Labor reported that the number of citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 231K for the week ending January 31 from the previous week’s 209K. The reading was also higher than estimates for a rise to 212K.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he would have passed on Kevin Warsh as his nominee for the Fed Chair if he had expressed a desire to hike interest rates. Trump added that there was not much doubt that the US central bank would lower rates.
The White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that diplomacy is Trump's first choice for dealing with Iran, and he will wait to see whether a deal can be struck at high-stakes talks on Friday amid differences over the agenda, keeping geopolitical risks in play.
Later during the North American session, traders will take cues from the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations. This, along with comments from influential FOMC members, would drive USD demand and the XAU/USD pair.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Volatility persists in commodity space Premium
After losing more than 8% to end the previous week, Gold (XAU/USD) remained under heavy selling pressure on Monday and dropped toward $4,400. Although XAU/USD staged a decisive rebound afterward, it failed to stabilize above $5,000.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820
EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.
GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above
GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.
USD/JPY drops back below 157.00, as focus shifts to Japan snap election
USD/JPY is back in the red below 157.00 in the Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen recovers ground against the US Dollar amid some profit-taking ahead of Japan's snap general election on Sunday. The preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report for February will be released later on Friday.
Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000
Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.
WTI rises to near $64.00, but faces weekly loss as US–Iran talks loom
West Texas Intermediate Oil price recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around $63.90 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. However, WTI price is on track for a weekly decline after six consecutive weeks of gains, largely driven by expectations surrounding a United States–Iran meeting scheduled later in the day.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.