Gold Forecast and News
Gold holds the bounce on Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven flows
Gold holds the rebound near $4,350 in the European trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers some lost ground after falling 4.5% in the previous session, which was Gold's largest single-day loss since October. Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD is not yet bearish. The 4-hour chart shows that the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) turned south above the current level, providing resistance at around $3,382.50. At the same time, the pair stands above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, and in fact, buyers seem to be defending the downside around the shorter one, located at $4,330.81. Meanwhile, technical indicators neared oversold readings and are currently aiming to recover, not enough, however, to confirm a near-term advance.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD bounced after testing a bullish 20-day SMA, which advances above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, with the longer ones retaining their firm upward slopes, all of which hint at buyers holding the grip. The 20-day SMA at $4,309.32 offers nearby dynamic support, while the 100-day SMA stands at $3,924.00. Finally, the Momentum indicator eases, but remains above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) eases and stands at 54, confirming a cooldown from prior overbought conditions. A daily close above the 20-day SMA at $4,309.32 would keep buyers in control, whereas a break below that level could expose the 100-day SMA at $3,924.00.
Fundamental Overview
Gold prices edged sharply lower in the American session on Monday, with the bright metal currently hovering at around $4,330, after flirting with the $4,550 figure at the beginning of the new week. Gold run to record levels continued on the back of diminished US Dollar (USD) demand, exacerbated by thinned market conditions. New Year’s holiday cuts the week in half, and investors seem unwilling to take fresh risk or commit to a certain trend.
The ongoing XAU/USD slump is the result of profit taking, but by no means suggests the rally is over. The USD weakness results from speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will trim interest rates in 2026 by more than what policy makers actually hinted during their December meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes will be released next Wednesday, and are likely to clarify some of the thinking related to the matter.
In the meantime, Wall Street trades with a negative note, with the three major indexes in the red at the time of writing, also affected by profit-taking.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: XAU/USD poised to challenge record highs Premium
Gold prices added roughly 3% in the week, flirting with the $4,350 mark on Friday, to finally settle at around $4,330. Despite its safe-haven condition, the bright metal rallied in a risk-on scenario, amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD flatlines below 1.1800 amid trading lull, awaits Fed Minutes
EUR/USD trades around a flatline below 1.1800 in European trading on Tuesday. The pair lacks any trading impetus as the US Dollar moves little amid market caution ahead of the Fed's December Meeting Minutes release, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s 2026 outlook.
GBP/USD retakes 1.3500 despite the year-end grind
GBP/USD finds fresh demand and retakes 1.3500 on Tuesday as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Despite the latest uptick, the pair is unlikely to see further progress due to the year-end holiday volumes.
USD/JPY rises back above 156.00, shrugs off Yentervention risks
USD/JPY is back in the green above the 156.00 region in Tuesday's Asian trading. The pair shrugs off impending risks of a forex market intervention by the Japanese officials. Volatility is expected to widen during the last trading week of 2025, and follow into early 2026 as holiday-thinned market volumes wreak havoc on general market trends.
Gold holds the bounce on Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven flows
Gold holds the rebound near $4,350 in the European trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers some lost ground after falling 4.5% in the previous session, which was Gold's largest single-day loss since October. Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.
WTI edges higher above $57.50 amid geopolitical risks
West Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $57.65 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price drifts higher amid geopolitical risks. Traders await the release of the American Petroleum Institute crude oil stockpiles report on Tuesday for fresh impetus.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.