This last week I had a couple of trading ideas that initially looked great on the chart, but then failed. So, why did they not work out?
I was analysing crude oil and was seeing more bullish behaviour. So, what went wrong then?
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One of the major reasons why this trade was not as fitted to attract more buyers as I wished was the general trend of the market. There was an established downtrend, and usually it takes more time to get buyers after such a bearish trend.
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The second reason was that I did not follow price action as precisely as I should have. After the inside day that formed on the daily chart, I did not follow next day’s candle which was an inside bar within the inside bar.
That is a very rare pattern, that usually leads to a trend continuation. The first inside bar shows signs of reversal, but the second inside bar rejects them.
That is a great example of why price action is so powerful, only if you have the courage and patience to follow it.
Lessons learned from the 1st trade and what to improve: You need to continue looking at the daily chart no matter how certain you are that a trend will reverse. Try to eliminate all certainties in trading and expect all possible outcomes. One candle leads to another and you should follow all of them!
Second Failed Trade
The second trade idea that I shared with you was posted on my website on Thursday.
So, why it did not work after re-analyzing the outcome.
I wanted to take a trade that was again against the major trend. The EURUSD pair was in a downtrend and there was an inside bar that formed on the daily. I took a small trade before the end of the trading day
It was Thanksgiving and there were fewer traders trading and willing to push the price higher
The candle that formed after the inside day candle was a bearish rejection candle, which bodes for more sellers or lack of buyers at least
Lessons learned from the 2nd trade and what to improve: I did not pull out of my trade once I saw a bit of profitability and completely ignored the bearish rejection candle that formed on the daily chart. Of course next day’s candle was a red candle as shown below:
So, all in all, these were initially good-looking trades, but in the end they did not tick all the boxes and failed.
We as traders are responsible to monitor closely each and every trade from open to close.
Even though I am being very strict on myself (that is how you should be, too), I do realise that we as humans will continue doing mistakes.
No matter how experienced we are and how many years we have under the trading belt, failing some trades is part of this business. If you are not willing to accept that and move on, you should be probably not trading at all.
The sooner you realise that, the quicker you will understand how important money management and position sizing are.
Taking a trade is just a part of the trading game- maybe 5%.
The other 95% are psychology, money management and discipline!
This material is written for educational purposes only. By no means do any of its contents recommend, advocate or urge the buying, selling or holding of any financial instrument whatsoever. Trading and Investing involves high levels of risk. The author expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. The author may or may not have positions in Financial Instruments discussed in this newsletter. Future results can be dramatically different from the opinions expressed herein. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820
EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.
GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above
GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.
USD/JPY drops back below 157.00, as focus shifts to Japan snap election
USD/JPY is back in the red below 157.00 in the Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen recovers ground against the US Dollar amid some profit-taking ahead of Japan's snap general election on Sunday. The preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report for February will be released later on Friday.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates Premium
The EUR/USD pair lost additional ground in the first week of February, settling at around 1.1820. The reversal lost momentum after the pair peaked at 1.2082 in January, its highest since mid-2021.
Gold: Volatility persists in commodity space Premium
After losing more than 8% to end the previous week, Gold (XAU/USD) remained under heavy selling pressure on Monday and dropped toward $4,400. Although XAU/USD staged a decisive rebound afterward, it failed to stabilize above $5,000.
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling tests key support ahead of a big week Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) changed course against the US Dollar (USD), with GBP/USD giving up nearly 200 pips in a dramatic correction.
Bitcoin: The worst may be behind us
Bitcoin (BTC) price recovers slightly, trading at $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, after reaching a low of $60,000 during the early Asian trading session. The Crypto King remained under pressure so far this week, posting three consecutive weeks of losses exceeding 30%.
Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election Premium
The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.
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