It is each and every forex trader’s dream to become consistently profitable. However, I think all of us can agree that reaching that goal is easier said than done. Most of us perceive that keeping a cool head in the midst of a large drawdown is the key to becoming consistently profitable.

I also think that keeping track of your forex performance and emotions when you’re winning is just as important. You wouldn’t want to lose your mojo while you’re on a winning streak, would you?

If you answered “No,” you better keep yourself from becoming overconfident. After all, there’s nothing like a string of winners to make a trader feel like he or she can’t make mistakes.

Overconfidence is usually characterized by an exaggerated belief in one’s own trading skills. Now, don’t get me wrong. Confidence is critical in becoming a successful trader. However, it’s one thing to believe that your trades can reel you in a handful of pips and it’s another to think that you know everything about the markets and that there’s no way for you to lose.

Overconfident traders usually get in trouble by trading larger position sizes than they’re used to, jumping in again in the same direction after getting stopped out, or overtrading.

If that just hit a nerve, don’t worry. You’re not the only one guilty of being overconfident. So how do you keep yourself from doing so? Here are a few of my suggestions:

The first step is awareness. You should ask yourself, “What factors can invalidate my trade idea?” or “What will I do when my trade goes against me?” From there, consider a few contingency plans. Through this exercise of making yourself aware that your seemingly-fail-proof trade setups can still end up as losers, you become more careful in managing your trade.

My second advice is to avoid being too eager in entering trades. As I mentioned, overtrading is one of the signs of overconfidence. Check your trading plan before you enter a trade. Does price action meet your entry criteria? If not, don’t just jump in because you have this “gut feeling” that that setup is gonna end up as a winner like your previous trades.

It doesn’t stop at entry criteria though. Just like how you would set a maximum drawdown stop whenever you’re in a losing streak, setting a cap for your losses is also as important as when you’re on a roll.

When you start losing after winning a few trades in a row, there’s a tendency for you to tell yourself that it’s okay because you still have a lot of money anyway. Although this might be true, the danger is that you may become lenient with your execution performance.

If you’re not careful, you might end up giving yourself a free pass on one loss after another. And before you know it, bam! You’ve already lost all your gains!

So be sure to determine how much of your winnings you are willing to lose. Let’s say you have already lost half of your most recent 3% gain, you may already want to take a little time off trading, re-consider your approach, and examine what you’ve been doing differently.

Ultimately, it all goes back to your trading plan. The best way to keep yourself from being overconfident is to establish a detailed trading plan and STICK TO IT!

Winning feels good, I know. Most of the time, it makes us feel like we’re invincible; that we can get away with a win on every trade. However, once you start to have this kind of thinking, that’s when you become most vulnerable to careless trading and your profits could evaporate in an instant.

Keep in mind that your goal as a trader is to become consistently profitable. So build on your wins by keeping your ego in check!



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Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

USD/JPY drops back below 157.00, as focus shifts to Japan snap election

USD/JPY drops back below 157.00, as focus shifts to Japan snap election

USD/JPY is back in the red below 157.00 in the Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen recovers ground against the US Dollar amid some profit-taking ahead of Japan's snap general election on Sunday. The preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report for February will be released later on Friday. 


Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates

EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates Premium

The EUR/USD pair lost additional ground in the first week of February, settling at around 1.1820. The reversal lost momentum after the pair peaked at 1.2082 in January, its highest since mid-2021.

Gold: Volatility persists in commodity space

Gold: Volatility persists in commodity space Premium

After losing more than 8% to end the previous week, Gold (XAU/USD) remained under heavy selling pressure on Monday and dropped toward $4,400. Although XAU/USD staged a decisive rebound afterward, it failed to stabilize above $5,000.

GBP/USD: Pound Sterling tests key support ahead of a big week

GBP/USD: Pound Sterling tests key support ahead of a big week Premium

The Pound Sterling (GBP) changed course against the US Dollar (USD), with GBP/USD giving up nearly 200 pips in a dramatic correction.

Bitcoin: The worst may be behind us

Bitcoin: The worst may be behind us

Bitcoin (BTC) price recovers slightly, trading at $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, after reaching a low of $60,000 during the early Asian trading session. The Crypto King remained under pressure so far this week, posting three consecutive weeks of losses exceeding 30%.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election Premium

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans. 

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