The first Friday of every month has one of the most volatile (and therefore anticipated) announcements. It is called Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the monthly change in number of people employed excluding the farming sector. Generally speaking, a high reading suggests rising employment and is seen as good for the USD, while a low reading is seen as bad.
Last month’s NFP numbers were 295K, this month’s consensus is lower at 244K. If NFP exceeds consensus, EUR/USD may fall and break-through the bottom support heading towards parity. On the other hand, if NFP reports in less than expected, EUR/USD could rise making up some of its losses from the first quarter.
So, the market will most likely be volatile on Friday, and in these event driven instances, you can trade volatility using a long strangle option strategy.
Creating the Long Strangle
This involves buying an out-of-the-money (OTM) Call option and an out-of-the-money (OTM) Put option. If the market rises the Call will profit and if the market falls the Put will profit. (Please refer to the Call and Put Lessons on Moneyness if you would like to better understand the terms ATM, ITM, and OTM).
Note: The strangle strategy differs from a straddle which involves buying both Call and Put options at-the-money (ATM), and since OTM options are cheaper the long straddle, it is a cheaper strategy.
To buy a EUR/USD Long Strangle, buy a EUR/USD Call option with a strike above the market rate and a EUR/USD Put option with a strike below the market rate. See example below using strike rates +/-1% from market.
The chart below shows a Long Strangle strategies’ profit or loss at expiry over a range of market rates.
Advantages:
- Can profit from a move in either direction
- It is cheaper to buy compared with a Long Straddle
- You will not get stopped-out
- Your maximum loss is limited to the premium paid at open
Disadvantages:
- Break-even points, at expiry, are further away compared with a Long Straddle
- Time value is against you
You are trading the expectation of increased volatility without taking a view on direction, therefore this strategy is commonly used over major economic announcements. You may choose to use a long strangle over a long straddle if you expect extreme volatility and want to enter a position at a smaller risk, i.e. increased leverage.
The content provided is made available to you by ORE Tech Ltd for educational purposes only, and does not constitute any recommendation and/or proposal regarding the performance and/or avoidance of any transaction (whether financial or not), and does not provide or intend to provide any basis of assumption and/or reliance to any such transaction.
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remained bid above 0.6500
AUD/USD extended further its bullish performance, advancing for the fourth session in a row on Thursday, although a sustainable breakout of the key 200-day SMA at 0.6526 still remain elusive.
EUR/USD faces a minor resistance near at 1.0750
EUR/USD quickly left behind Wednesday’s small downtick and resumed its uptrend north of 1.0700 the figure, always on the back of the persistent sell-off in the US Dollar ahead of key PCE data on Friday.
Gold holds around $2,330 after dismal US data
Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.
Bitcoin price continues to get rejected from $65K resistance as SEC delays decision on spot BTC ETF options
Bitcoin (BTC) price has markets in disarray, provoking a broader market crash as it slumped to the $62,000 range on Thursday. Meanwhile, reverberations from spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to influence the market.
US economy: slower growth with stronger inflation
The dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.
RECOMMENDED LESSONS
Making money in forex is easy if you know how the bankers trade!
Discover how to make money in forex is easy if you know how the bankers trade!
5 Forex News Events You Need To Know
In the fast moving world of currency markets, it is extremely important for new traders to know the list of important forex news...
Top 10 Chart Patterns Every Trader Should Know
Chart patterns are one of the most effective trading tools for a trader. They are pure price-action, and form on the basis of underlying buying and...
7 Ways to Avoid Forex Scams
The forex industry is recently seeing more and more scams. Here are 7 ways to avoid losing your money in such scams: Forex scams are becoming frequent. Michael Greenberg reports on luxurious expenses, including a submarine bought from the money taken from forex traders. Here’s another report of a forex fraud. So, how can we avoid falling in such forex scams?
What Are the 10 Fatal Mistakes Traders Make
Trading is exciting. Trading is hard. Trading is extremely hard. Some say that it takes more than 10,000 hours to master. Others believe that trading is the way to quick riches. They might be both wrong. What is important to know that no matter how experienced you are, mistakes will be part of the trading process.