EUR/USD News (Euro US Dollar)


EUR/USD slips back to low ground amid coronavirus concerns

EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.08 coronavirus headlines are weighing heavily on the market. The US dollar remains bid despite falling US yields.  Earlier, the German IFO Business Climate beat with 96.1.

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Technical Overview

While momentum on the four-hour chart turned positive, euro/dollar has failed to recapture the 50 Simple Moving Average. It trades below the 100 and 200 ones. More importantly, the Relative Strength Index is back above 50 – outside oversold conditions and allowing for more falls.

Support awaits at 1.0820, which has been separating ranges in recent weeks, and the upper bound of the "Macron Gap" from 2017. The 2020 low of 1.0777 – also the lower bound of that 34-month old gap – is the next level to watch. 1.0720 and 1.0655 are next.

Resistance awaits at 1.0860, which was the high point on Friday, followed by 1.0885, which was both a swing high and a swing low in mid-February. 1.0925 and 1.0940 are next.


Fundamental Overview

"The German economy is not affected by coronavirus" – says the IFO, Germany's leading thinktank. His words – accompanied by a minor beat in the institution's Business Climate figure for February – are helping EUR/USD recovery.

Yet this upward move may prove a selling opportunity.

Why? Starting from IFO, their optimism may be unwarranted – or perhaps already outdated. Since the survey was taken, the virus has already taken the lives of four people in northern Italy where authorities have put several towns under lockdown. The disease is taking an economic toll on Europe and Germany is unlikely to be immune.

Moreover, Chinese President Xi Jinping has expressed concern about the outbreak – a change from Beijing's more defiant tone last week. The Communist Party canceled its annual parliament gathering. Worse off, hopes that Wuhan – the epicenter of the coronavirus – would lift some travel restrictions were quickly abandoned. 

German growth has been fueled by Chinese demand in recent years and if the world's second-largest economy grinds to a halt – Europe's biggest one would feel the pain.

For the dollar, coronavirus has been most beneficial. The greenback benefits from safe-haven flow into US bonds. On the other hand, lower bond yields make the world's reserve currency less attractive.

Purchasing Managers' Indexes on Friday provided an opportunity to cover shorts on EUR/USD after it reached a new 34-month low at 1.0777. The all-important German Manufacturing PMI beat expectations with 47.8 – albeit on top of a rise in delivery time. 

In the US, Markit's PMIs – which are usually outweighed by ISM's figures – sent the dollar lower. The forward-looking gauge for the services sector dropped below 50 – the lowest since 2013 – indicating contraction in America's driving force. 

While not all factors are EUR/USD bearish, the old continent is likely to struggle with the virus more than America. 



Big Picture

THEMES AFFECTING THE EUR/USD

SPECIAL YEARLY FORECAST

EUR/USD Price Forecast 2020: Lean times soon to turn into flush times for euro dollar

Markets' lean season has lasted two full years and while those are not yet over, flush times are looking more and more likely for this 2020. EUR/USD news: The beginning of the end of the trade war? Ever since hitting 1.2537 in January 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been on a selling spiral that set a multi-year low of 1.0878 just two months ago. The level can hardly be considered an interim bottom when just considering the following price’s recovery, but the focus this time shouldn’t be put on technical readings, but in politics.

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Latest EURUSD Analysis


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Editors' picks

EUR/USD slips back to low ground amid coronavirus concerns

EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.08 coronavirus headlines are weighing heavily on the market. The US dollar remains bid despite falling US yields.  Earlier, the German IFO Business Climate beat with 96.1.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD dips below 1.29 on USD strength

GBP/USD has dipped below 1.29 as the dollar gains ground amid coronavirus headlines. The EU and the UK prepare for formal post-Brexit due to talks kicking off next week. 

GBP/USD News

Crypto market consolidates prices while crushing traders' emotions

Top 3 prices remain in range and contradict indicators pointing south. Mild "fear" sentiment is inconsistent with prices in the upper range of the upward movement. XRP may be the surprise of the week and bounce upwards for technical reasons.

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Gold hits fresh multi-year tops, eyeing $1700 mark

Gold continues scaling higher amid a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade. Heightened fears about the economic impact of the deadly coronavirus rattled investors. Absent relevant economic data is unlikely to hinder the ongoing strong move up.

Gold News

USD/JPY: Risk-off takes over markets

The coronavirus spreading outside China triggered a run to safety at the start of the week. Equities and government bond yields collapsing leading the way. USD/JPY bearish potential increasing, to accelerate south once below 111.10.

USD/JPY News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures


Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD

The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism. 

On the other hand we found The Federal Reserve System (Fed) wich is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.


Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).

Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.

ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS

FED NEWS & ANALYSIS


About EUR/USD

The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.

Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.

Related pairs

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.

The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.

Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.