Ripple Market Update: The majority of XRP holders are nursing losses

Ryan Watkins, a research analyst from Messari, believes that the vast majority of XRP holders are deep in red at the current stage. He found out that an average XRP investor bought the coins at a price of $1.38, which means they are losing money at a time when XRP costs $0.18.

Despite XRP having only closed above $1.00 on just 2.1% of its trading days, XRP’s aggregate estimated cost basis is $1.38. This suggests most XRP investors are deeply in the red, Watkins explained.

He based hist estimations on the so called realized capitalization, which is often considered as a more accurate measure than the commonly used market capitalization. A  realized capitalization is an estimate of the aggregate cost basis of a cryptocurrency and is calculated from the valuation of each unit of supply at the price it last moved on-chain.

XRP/USD: technical picture

XRP/USD hit the intraday low at $0.1870 during early Asian hours and recovered to $0.1895 by press time. Despite the upside move, the coin is still below the critical barrier of $0.1900 that now serves as local resistance.  A sustainable move above this area opens the way towards the next barrier of $0.2000. It is reinforced by 1-hour SMA100 and SMA200 as well as 4-hour SMA50. Once it is out of the way, a combination of 4-hour SMA200 and SMA100 will come into focus. They are clustered on approach to psychological $0.2000.

A pivotal resistance of $0.2030 contains a combination of strong technical factors, including daily SMA50, 38.2%  Fibo retracement for the downside move from February 2020 high and an upper boundary of the previous consolidation channel. 

XRP/USD 4-hour chart

On the downside the price is supported by $0.1870, which includes the intraday low. A sustainable move below this area will triger more sell-off with the next aim at $01820-0.1800 and $0.1700 (23.6%  Fibo retracement for the downside move from February 2020 high).

XRP/USD daily chart