Cardano whales prepare for Chang Hard Fork, biggest network upgrade since 2021

Cardano (ADA) big-wallet traders seem to be positioning ahead of upcoming changes to the chain’s network. The upcoming Chang Hard Fork upgrade, the biggest one since 2021, will introduce a mechanism for users to participate in on-chain governance, supporting the decentralization process in Cardano. 

Cardano whales have accumulated ADA tokens at a fast pace in the last two days, on-chain data shows, likely anticipating gains in the altcoin’s price.

What to expect from Cardano’s Chang Hard Fork

Chang Hard Fork is a key milestone in the decentralization of governance in the Cardano blockchain. It is the largest upgrade to the blockchain network in two years, as it marks the final step in the decentralization process in the Voltaire phase of Cardano’s roadmap. 

Chang Hard Fork has two upgrades lined up. The first one initiates a process by which a working group reviews progress and ensures that the desired thresholds are met and the ecosystem is ready for the hard fork. The group will then raise necessary governance actions and sign off the hard fork, the last of its kind prior to decentralization, where ADA holders take control of the chain. 

The transaction to trigger the first upgrade on the mainnet was submitted on Thursday. Nicolas Serny, governance lead at the Cardano Foundation, said:

This milestone officially ushers us into the Conway era, beginning in epoch 507 on September 1, 2024, at 21:45 UTC.

The second upgrade will begin nearly three months from now, with approval from the Interim Constitutional Committee (ICC) and Stake Pool Operators (SPOs). This upgrade will activate advanced governance features, including decentralized representatives (DReps) and governance tools, inviting broader participation from Cardano holders. 

The goal of the two upgrades in Chang Hard Fork is to fully transition Cardano to a community-driven blockchain in which the decision-making process is decentralized. 

Three key on-chain metrics show Cardano is gearing for price gains

Cardano’s large-wallet investors holding more than 100 million ADA tokens added 170 million coins to their holdings between August 27 and 30. This marks a large-scale accumulation by whales and is typically considered a positive sign for the asset. 

While whales accumulated Cardano, retail traders and smaller holders opted to sell their ADA tokens, data from Santiment’s supply distribution chart shows. 

Cardano supply distribution 

Cardano’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) – a metric used to ascertain whether a token is overvalued or undervalued in different time frames – stands at -11.08% in a seven-day time frame, suggesting that Cardano is undervalued. This signals the opportunity for a gradual long position in ADA as the asset remains undervalued this week. 

Cardano MVRV

Traders have consistently realized losses in Cardano for weeks, additional data shows. The Network Realized Profit/Loss metric (NPL), used to identify the net profit or loss of all coins moved on a given day, shows that ADA traders have realized almost $44 million in losses in the last seven days, between August 24 and 30. 

Consistent negative spikes in NPL, meaning episodes of investors selling at losses, are typically considered a sign of capitulation after which prices tend to recover. 

Cardano NPL 

Cardano trades at $0.3563 at the time of writing, down 0.39% on the day.