Cardano Price Prediction: Bearish signal emerges as ADA eyes rebound to $1.20

Cardano price tumbled below $1 on Thursday as traders reacted to the US Fed hinting at fewer rate cuts in 2025. On-chain data shows a persistent decline in whale demand for ADA over the past two weeks. 

Cardano plunges below $1 amid post-FOMC sell-off

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) concluded its December FOMC meeting with a 25-basis-point interest rate cut.

But despite matching analysts' expectations with a third consecutive rate cut, the accompanying statement hinting at fewer cuts in 2025 sent bearish aftershocks across the crypto market. 

The chart above shows how ADA prices plunged as low as $0.8800 on Thursday, bringing its weekly time frame losses to the 25% mark.

While Cardano’s ongoing downswing aligns with the global market dip in the aftermath of the Fed’s more hawkish outlook. The 25% loss has seen ADA fall behind rival Layer-1 coins like ETH, SOL and AVAX. 

ADA whale demand drops by $13B, intensifying downside risks 

When a mega cap asset like Cardano performs below the market average, it signals the presence of lingering internal bearish catalysts.

The on-chain data trends show that ADA has struggled to attract demand since December 2, two weeks before the FOMC meeting triggered a market-wide sell-off on Wednesday. 

In indication of this stance, the IntoTheBlock chart below tracks the daily volume of single transactions that exceed $100,000 in value.

This serves as a proxy for monitoring trading of whale investors on a blockchain network. 

Looking at the chart above, Cardano large transactions totalled $15.8 billion on December 2.

But since then, whale investors have progressively scaled down their demand for ADA.

The latest data shows that only $2.9 billion worth of large transactions were executed on December 18, reflecting a $13 billion decline from the monthly time frame peak.

Such a massive decline in whale transactions could be bearish for two key reasons. 

First, large transaction volumes often indicate significant market activity by institutional or high-net-worth investors.

A sharp reduction in such activity suggests waning confidence among Cardano’s largest stakeholders, potentially discouraging smaller retail investors and triggering further sell-offs. 

Second, reduced whale participation implies lower liquidity in the ADA market and heightened risk of rapid price downswings during a crypto sell-off.

This partly explains why ADA price has tumbled further than the likes of ETH, SOL and AVAX. 

Cardano price forecast: $0.8500 support at risk

After a 25% decline in the past week, the Donchian Channel (DC) and Volume Delta technical indicators now paint a bearish picture for Cardano’s short-term price action and market momentum.

The Donchian Channel reflects that ADA is currently testing its lower boundary at $0.8688, a critical level of support.

The upper boundary at $1.3264 highlights significant resistance, while the midline at $1.0976, corresponding to prior price consolidation, now serves as a strong resistance zone. The breach of the midline in recent sessions suggests a shift in sentiment from neutral to bearish, with sellers clearly dominating.

Price trading near the lower boundary implies heightened downside risks. If ADA fails to hold above the $0.8500-$0.8688 range, the next likely support zone lies near $0.8000.

The Volume Delta adds further confirmation of bearish momentum. The -88.06 million delta clearly shows that sell-side activity significantly outweighs buy-side interest. This overwhelming selling pressure is consistent with waning whale activity, as highlighted by the $13 billion drop in large transactions since December 2.

The lack of significant green volume bars signals weak buyer confidence, making it unlikely that bulls can mount a meaningful recovery in the near term. Combined with the Donchian Channel, this suggests that even if ADA bounces back towards the $1.00 psychological level, it would face strong resistance at the $1.0976 midline.

If sell-side dominance continues, ADA will likely break below $0.8500, with the next major support near $0.8000.