Bitcoin Stays in a Fly Mode, Breaks Above 11250


BTC/USD surged over the weekend, opening Monday with a positive gap above the psychological round figure of 10000. The crypto found resistance at 11250 and retreated somewhat, but the bulls were quick to regain control near the 10500 hurdle and today, they managed to overcome yesterday’s high of 11250. The broader picture suggests that at around the end of March, the bulls have stepped on the accelerator, creating the need for using even steeper uptrend lines. Thus, we would stick to our guns that the bias remains to the upside.

We believe that the break above 11250 may have allowed the bulls to aim for the 11625 resistance area, which is defined by the peak of March 5th, 2018, but we would prefer to wait for a clear break above that zone before we get confident on larger advances. Such a move could initially pave the way towards the 12040 territory, near the high of January 17th, 2018, the break of which may allow extensions towards the 12560 barrier, defined by the inside swing lows of the 11th and 12th of that month.

Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI remains well above its 70 line, and continues to point north, while the MACD, lies above both its zero and trigger lines. That said, the MACD has slowed recently. Both indicators detect upside speed, but the MACD’s slowdown make us cautious over a possible setback before the next positive leg.

Nevertheless, we would like to see a decisive dip below the psychological zone of 10000 before we start examining whether the bulls have abandoned the battlefield, at least for a while, thereby allowing a decent correction to the downside. Such a move would also drive the crypto below the short-term upside support line drawn from the low of June 11th and may set the stage for declines towards the 9370 zone. Another break, below 9370, could extend the slide towards the 8900 hurdle, marked by the low of June 18th, or the upside support line drawn from the low of April 29th.

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