Bitcoin price reclaims above $44,000: Spot Bitcoin ETF updates as window for approval opens

Spot BTC ETF developments ahead of the January 5 window

ETF specialist Eric Balchunas has indicated that the SEC is giving final comments after which the issuers will submit final 19b-4s and S-1s. According to Balchunas, “This is definitely as close to done as we've been [to a spot BTC ETF approval] but no official approval as far as I know.”

James Seyffart, also an ETF specialist with Bloomberg,  thinks the SEC could begin signaling to issuers to expect  approvals officially between January 8 and 10, adding that the gap between approval orders and actual trading will be measured in days and not weeks.

Elsewhere, sources close to the proceedings say the SEC could begin notifying issuers of approval on Friday, January 5, with trading beginning as early as the following week.

Bitwise surveyed over 400 financial advisors in November and December of 2023, with the findings show that only 39% expect an ETF approval in 2024.

A senior reporter at TechCrunch, Jacquelyn Melinek, reports that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved by the SEC for multiple firms' applications, with the news expected tomorrow, citing “sources extremely close to the matter.”

Grayscale has officially listed GBTC on their retail-facing website. Experts say that legally this is only possible if it is approved as The firm’s Craig Salm says he is “just filling out some forms.”

ARK Invest just filed a 'Registration of Securities' for its spot Bitcoin ETF

Former Citigroup executives are launching Bitcoin depositary receipts, bypassing US regulatory approval. Unlike Bitcoin ETFs converted to cash, these receipts offer direct ownership of Bitcoin for qualified institutions. Nevertheless, Eric Balchunas believes these will be a "tough sell" with ETFs around the corner.

The head of research at CoinShares James Butterfill says the current Bitcoin prices suggest the market is pricing $1 billion seed into US spot-based ETFs, basing his assumption on the firm's fund flows model.

Bitcoin price outlook

Meanwhile, Bitcoin price has reclaimed the $44,000 psychological level. It holds above the midline of the weekly supply barrier at $43,860, though not decisively. By and large, there is still no directional bias as the market exercises caution. This is after the January 3 crash that saw both sides taken out, with shorts as well as longs rekt. 

Evidence of this is in the BTC liquidations heat map, showing that Bitcoin price is in the middle of nowhere. For the next directional  bias, therefore, the market may have to wait for positions to build up again.

BTC liquidations heat map

At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is trading at $44,382 after recouping most of the ground lost in the Wednesday crash. On the weekly timeframe, BTC remains within the weekly supply zone but has breached its midline, which is a good sign.

The Relative Strength Index is moving north to show rising momentum while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is rising on the weekly timeframe to show the prevailing trend is strengthening. 

BTC/USDT 1/day chart, BTC/USDT 1-week chart