Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD recovery is hopeless as long as daily SMA50 stays intact

Bitfinex executed the largest BTC transaction

Bitcoin network saw its biggest transaction on history on April 10. The cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex transacted 161,500 Bitcoin (BTC)  to the tune of $1.1 billion for a tiny fee of $0.68. According to the head of the exchange Paolo Ardoino, 15,000 BTC were used to refill the hot wallet of the platform, while the rest (146,500 BTC) was sent back to the original address. 

This is the biggest transaction in Bitcoin's history in terms of the dollar amount. The previous record was set on September 6, 2019, when someone transacted 94,504 BTC worth of $1.018 billion at the time. However the sender had to pay a hefty fee of $700, which is huge when compared to $0.68 paid this time by Bitfinex. 

In Bitcoin terms, the largest transaction is dated back to November 16, 2011, when 500,000 BTC was moved between the wallets. At the current rate, this amount of Bitcoin is worth of $3.5 billion; however, at the time of the transaction, they could be cashed out for $1.32 million.

Notably, the transaction did not affect the Bitcoin price. At the time of writing, the first digital asset is changing hands at $6,700, down 3% since the beginning of the day. On a weekly basis, BTC/USD is down over 7%. 

BTC/USD: Technical picture

Bitcoin's recovery is effectively capped by daily SMA50. The coin attempted to clear this barrier on several occasions since April 4, but the upside momentum was not strong enough to take the price sustainably higher. Currently, daily SMA50 is registered at $7,150, which is roughly coincides with 50% Fibo retracement for the downside move from February 13 high to March 13 low. This resistance is the key to Bitcoin's further recovery towards the next critical barrier of $8,000, which is reinforced by a combination of daily SMA100 and SMA200. It is closely followed by $8,250 (23.6% Fibo retracement for the downside move from July 2019 high to December 2019 low.

On the downside, the critical support is created by $6,500. A confluence of December 2019 low and 38.2% Fibo retracement for the downside move from February 13 high to March 13 low (blue lines), makes it a hard nut to crack for BTC bears. However, once it is out of the way, the sell-off is likely to gain traction with the next focus on psychological $6,000 and the recent retracement low of $5,854.

BTC/USD daily chart