Tanya Abrosimova
Independent Analyst
- Bitcoin may retreat towards the channel support at $9,600.
- A sustainable move above $10,00 is needed for the upside to gain traction.
BTC/USD made another attempt to break above $10,000 on late Wednesday and settled in a range $9,800-$9,900 during early Asian hours on Thursday. At the time of writing, BTC/USD is changing hands at $9.850 amid growing bearish pressure as on the intraday charts the price is reversing from the overbought territory. Despite the retreat, BTC/USD has gained nearly 1.5% since this time on Wednesday and moved above the former local resistance of $9,800 that now serves as a line of support.
FOMC is behind the move
While the correlation between Bitcoin price movements and macroeconomic developments is still unclear, some analysts believe that the sharp price movement was triggered by the statement of the Fed's head Jerome Powell. The U.S. central bank left the key rate at 0-0.25% and assumed that the monetary policy would stay intact until the end of 2022 due to high unemployment rates. Powell pointed out that the decline in U.S. GDP in the second quarter could be record-breaking.
A popular cryptocurrency analyst Ceteris Paribus (@ceterispar1bus) commented on Twitter:
BTC really trying to break through after that FOMC statement. A bit of a delayed reaction, but there's not really a more bullish macro catalyst than zero rates through 2022. Would be pretty disappointed if this didn't start aggressively going higher here.
BTC/USD: Technical picture
BTC/USD bumped into $10,000 and resumed the decline. A failed attempt to break above the critical resistance may lead to an extended downside correction towards the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range at $9,600. This channel support should stop the sell-off due to a large cluster of buying orders and a combination of technical factors, including 4-hour SMA100 and the upper line of the previously broken triangle pattern.
On the upside, once $10,000 is out the way, the recovery will gather pace and take the price towards the previous recovery high at $10,4141 followed by the highest level of $2020 at $10,511.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart
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