Two thousand eighteen will be the year that will remain in the memory of all traders that were expelled out of the Crypto market. From the last rallies of the great December Bump to today, bears have overwhelmingly dominated the market. With the exception for a few days in early spring, the Crypto universe has been heading for the abyss.

At the 2018 Bitcoin Forecast, the minimum price target I set was $8,000.

A few weeks after the start of the new year, I saw that I had not well valued the extreme volatility of Bitcoin and much less the regulatory, security and technical problems that have helped the BTC/USD price set the minimum for 2018 at $3,136.25.

However, let's go a little beyond the price and see how the structures built around Bitcoin will close the year.


Bitcoin Futures Market

One year ago, the first Futures contracts were launched on Bitcoin. Hand in hand with the Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) and its parent company, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the world's most regulated Cryptoassets trading initiatives began to work

According to the CME report, this has been the evolution:


Source: CME Bitcoin Consensus v12

Q4 of 2018 presents a growth of the negotiated volume by 119% in comparison to Q1. Since the launch, the monthly average negotiated amounts to $2.7 billion, with a record on November 20 in 14,490 contracts equivalent to 72K Bitcoins worth $307 million.


Source: CME Bitcoin Consensus v12

In this case, we can see how the spread between the Bid and Ask has improved below two ticks in the last month of the year. Even with the increase in volatility after the latest declines, the spread has remained at low levels.

Financial regulation: The elusive Bitcoin ETF

In the year that should have been the institutionalization of investments in Bitcoins, up to 9 proposals for the launch of ETF’s have been rejected. With the start of Bitcoin Futures in markets as well organized as CME or CBOE, it seemed that ETF’s were the next logical step. Unfortunately, this has not been the case because the regulators consider the proposals do not offer sufficient guarantees against fraudulent manipulation of the markets.

It is not clear that in 2019, the SEC will grant authorization for the launch of this type of product. The President of the Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, Jay Clayton stated at the end of last November:

"I want to see better market surveillance and custody for digital currencies before being comfortable with a crypto ETF."

In turn, SEC commissioner Hester Peirce, who represents the most Pro Bitcoin ETF position in the regulator's decision-making body said:

"Don't hold your breath. I do caution people to not live or die on when a crypto or bitcoin ETF gets approved. You all know that I am working on trying to convince my colleagues to have a bit more of an open mind when it comes to [crypto]."

As you can see, there is not much urgency in resolving this issue. Many countries have advanced projects on Exchanges legislation, ICO’s, taxation and cryptocurrencies. Any step in that direction will be positive for Bitcoin.

Cryptomarket Security issues

Another critical factor in understanding Bitcoin's weakness is theft. In January, Coincheck suffered the most devastating theft in the history of cryptocurrencies with the disappearance of 500 million of NEM’s valued at $532 million.

In addition to Coincheck other exchanges have suffered attacks this year:

The Swiss Exchange Bancor was attacked in July, with thieves escaping with 24K Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. Hackers stole a total value of $46 million.
The South Korean exchange Conrail suffered the theft of $1.1 million at Ethereums, TRX’s and NPXS’s.
The also South Korean Bithumb, lost $31 million in an attack $31 million although it has already been able to recover about $14 million. The Italian exchange Bitgrail was attacked and lost 17 million Nano´s worth $170 million.

The global figure for 2018 is close to $1 billion. Security is one of the points that must improve for 2019 since a sustained growth of the cryptocurrencies market is not going to be possible as long as there is the risk that your investment disappears overnight.

The people in charge of the exchanges have understood correctly the necessity to guarantee the investments of their clients. New security measures will be implemented, and in case of theft, the unwritten rule is to replace what has been stolen in customers' accounts.

2018 leaves us with little progress compared to the close of 2017. The Bitcoin futures market has grown significantly and has become consolidated as the only option for institutional investors. ETF’s on Bitcoin can be approved at any time, although statements from SEC commissioners seem to indicate that there is no rush to address the issue.

Security remains a weak spot, and it is very likely that negative news in this regard will continue to appear on a recurring basis in 2019. The rapid advances in supercomputing make it easier every day to decipher secure keys, so the work of all those responsible for security is going to be crucial to try to eradicate these attacks.

Bitcoin Forecast 2019

The year that is about to begin is going to be an essential one for Bitcoin without no doubt. After more than ten months of continuous falls, the next twelve months will be decisive for the long-term future of Bitcoin.

In the last three days, Bitcoin has emerged from the lows, exceeding $4,000. It is an increase close to 25% but in the medium term, it does not mean a lot. The time has not yet come to declare the annual minimum price level as a market floor. According to Hans Hauge in a recent interview.

"Going off the low Z-scores from the last two bubbles, and the fact that bubbles have the strange property of deflating to just above the last peak, I would say that the floor for Bitcoin in the near term is probably around $2,000 (the bubble before this peaked around $1,100)."

According to my analysis, the critical level is right at the price level of the annual lows at $3,126. The simple exponential average of two hundred periods in the weekly range is precisely at that price level, providing resounding support that for now, the bleeding bear market reached its end. The loss of this support level would be nefarious for the price of Bitcoin.

In the long-term technical analysis, I rule out those movements with an inclination greater than 60º in both directions of the market. Following this premise, I draw possible scenarios respecting the levels of resistance and long-term support.


As we can see in the weekly chart, the bears maintain important levels of activity, while the bulls improve in the last week but are still far from being able to dispute the leadership on the bear side of the market.

The short-term goal of the move started at the end of December 2018 and is at the price level of $6,000. At this point, the odds of a resumption of the bearish trend are high. (Point A)

If the bears retake control, the first medium-term objective would be back in the SMA200 zone at the $3,460 price level. The loss of this area would send a very negative message to the market, and the $2,000 region would be the next target. Below this point, next support, already in the price zone mentioned by Mr. Hauges, is at $1,332.(Point B)

At this point, Mr. Hauge comments:

"The last thing is that futures contracts have been getting more popular month over month, and we should be seeing Bakkt launch in January of 2019. This will add an option for futures settled in Bitcoin, rather than just in cash. If we see the same growth pattern with these contracts as the cash settled versions, it could be a key driver growth. Sometime in 2019, or 2020; I predict Bitcoin will reach $100k for a single coin."

On the bullish side, the least likely scenario is an absolute bullish movement. This linear scenario would have a target for December 2019 at the price level of $17,000 (Point C).

A second scenario, which would continue from point A, would fall back to the $4,600 price level and from there gain bullish momentum again and move towards the $8,300 price level (Point D).

The most likely bullish scenarios converge at a point slightly below $10,000 (Point E).


Bitcoin Point & Figure Chart 

fxsoriginal by Gonçalo Moreira, CMT


Because of the exceptionally strong rally in 2017, we have opted to assign a more or less liberal box size when constructing a Point and Figure chart. In this case a 5% box size was used, this means each X and O is an advancement (or retracement) of 5% in the price of Bitcoin. By doing so, we come up with a chart offering several so-called “counts” or price objectives. 

Counts 1. and 2. have their origin in movements below 1,000 USD per Bitcoin, and count 3. drawn from an X column which started at 1,000 USD per Bitcoin, were all achieved between 2016 and 2017. Target 4., in turn, was activated with the new up leg which paved the way for count 5., but left us with unfilled higher projections. It's worth mentioning that count 5. is now invalidated with the recent price plunge below 3700.00.


The latest phase of the run-up phase created count 6. and opened measured move objectives towards 103,000 which has been negated during 2018. Before count 6 was deactivated, a new downside target emerged from a first column of Os after the all-time high, labelled count 7., targeting the 5500.00 area, already filled. The most recent count 8., towards 2650.00, threatens but wouldn't invalidate count 4. towards the high of 23900.00.

The column of Os being drawn at the moment needs a 15% reversal to print a target. Assuming the 45º line would cause that reversal, the resulting target would be below the 700.00 dollar per Bitcoin.


Bitcoin Elliot Wave Analysis 

fxsoriginal by Gregor Horvat

BITCOIN made sharp and impulsive rally in 2017, which we see it as a wave A, first leg of a bullish cycle that has slowed down in 2018 with a big decline. So, we are a deep wave B that can be looking for a support with a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) move 1800-3000 area, around old swing lows marked on the chart. Ideally market will see some recovery in 2019; at least in three waves, possibly back to around 6000-8000 area.  



Bitcoin Camarilla Pivot Point Forecast 

fxsoriginal by Nenad Kerkez

Yeah, people were laughing when I warned it was a bubble. I was one of the first to warn against it and I was attacked by many crypto enthusiasts saying I didn’t have a clue what I was talking about. Now we see who was right again. The BTC is a defensive asset but its rising in a rising stock market. I have said hundreds of times before - IT IS A BUBBLE bc people are not treating it like a currency, people are investing in it which is speculative.

How could 1 Bitcoin unit exceed a physical precious metal like gold? 1 Bitcoin > 1 Oz of Gold .Non sensical.


The other problem with Bitcoin is for those using it as a currency for their trade/service, as the price of Bitcoin rises its harder to get paid in fractional units of a Bitcoin so at some stage Bitcoin will have to re-issue coins (increase supply) but no one is talking about that because that will put additional fear in the market and tank it further.

After an initial spike to 5603 during Q1 it should drop to 2376 in Q2. If it breaks 2376 – M L4 support it will drop to 785.39. Then the BTC is done with.


Forecast Poll 2019

Bullish 31.6%
Bearish 42.1%
Sideways 26.3%
Average Forecast Price 3804.28
FXOpen team 4500.00 Sideways
Dmitriy Gurkovskiy 7360.00 Bullish
Brad Alexander 2500.00 Bearish
ForexGDP Team 4000.00 Bullish
Dmitry Lukashov 1500.00 Bearish
Tomas Salles 9900.00 Bullish
Stoyan Mihaylov 1890.00 Bearish
Aubrey Hansen 3641.50 Sideways
Gregor Horvat 7000.00 Bullish
Chris Svorcik 3500.00 Bullish
Joseph Trevisani 4000.00 Sideways
Ed Ponsi 4000.00 Sideways
HotForex Team 500.00 Bearish
Alberto Muñoz 1200.00 Bearish
Yohay Elam 7000.00 Bullish
Walid Salah El Din 2000.00 Bearish
OctaFx Analyst Team 4000.00 Sideways
Jeff Langin 2500.00 Bearish
Michael Pento 1290.00 Bearish



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