Will TikTok find a way to stay in the US?

The talk was all about TikTok yesterday. President Trump was all set to ban its operations in the US. But then he had a change of heart and has given Microsoft a chance to buy its operations in the next 45 days. Microsoft is also in talks to acquire TikTok’s operations in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

Microsoft should be really excited. They already have a presence in social media through their holdings in LinkedIn. But LinkedIn is all professional stuff and TikTok is all that silly stuff that tickles the teenagers which is a great business to be in. Microsoft could be in direct competition with Facebook and Snapchat too giving them a run for their money. In fact, Microsoft stocks were up 4% yesterday.

The upcoming payrolls figures this week will be closely watched by the markets so will the retail sales figures that will be released on Aug 14th. A JPMorgan strategist is expecting a modest correction in the markets especially if the above-mentioned economic releases undershoot market expectations. Market expectations are still that a stimulus package of at least one trillion is coming to the markets that will cushion a bigger fall.

CNBC reported yesterday that “Facebook will prepare users for mail-in voting for 2020 election and pandemic.” After all that happened with Facebook’s involvement in the 2016 elections it is interesting to see what they can do for this upcoming election. There should be a lot of discussions around this on the social media and comments from the White House as well.

Equities

The S&P 500 moved above the resistance level at 3280 probably aiming to close the gap that exited up to 3338 from its close on Feb 21 to its open on Feb 24.

The advance / decline is nothing much to write about as it was around 56% advancing and 44% declining. A decline below 3270 will be the first signs that the markets could be turning south.

Bonds

Bonds could be closer to completing its structure after when we will take a closer look.

Euro

The Euro could have completed the corrective rally we were alluding to.

As we mentioned before the daily sentiment indicator is at one of its highest levels. Large speculators are net- long the euro since a long time and they can still get longer. The commercials who are more into currency hedging have the opposite trade. This spread is at one of its widest point meaning a mean reversion can take place any time.

Gold

Gold could be at an inflection point. The pattern probably can have one more high as the subdivisions are complex.

The 10-day daily sentiment index is at 88%. In the last 9 years only two times was it higher. One was in last Aug which led to a fall until Nov 2019 and the previous one was when Gold made its top in Sep 2011 and declined until Dec 15 for 46%. Market Vane’s bullish consensus is at 87% for gold bulls. The previous extreme was at 89% in Aug 2011. The key turning point on the downside is around 1920.