A snapshot view of last week's money flow and technical notes for the week ahead.
KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
AUD: RBA Gov Stevens speaks; CIP q/q
CAD: Core Retail Sales
CHF: Trade Balance
CNY: Flash PMI
EUR: Flash PMI (Euro and Ger); German Ifo business climate; M3 Money supply;
GBP: Official votes; BoE Gov Carney speaks; Retail Sales; Preliminary GDP
JPY: Monetary Policy Statement; BoJ press conference;
NZD: CPI q/q; Official Cash Rate/Rate Statement; Trade Balance; Business Confidence
USD: Core CPI; Existing & New Home Sales; Core Durable Goods; Unemployment Claims
FOREX: W1
DXY Bullish engulfing on W1 warns of bullish continuation and for 79.50 to be a structural swing low
AUDUSD Open-close range of 20 pips; Potential bullish hammer; Friday's bullish engulfing candle (and swing low) warns of near-term strength on D1
EURUSD Intraday day break below 1.350 but remains above 2012 trendline; A break below here is a weekly bearish signal
GBPUSD Potential bullish hammer on Friday; Bias remains bullish above 1.70 but still amid correction at the highs with a view for trend continuation
USDCAD Rikshaw Man Doji between 1.07 support and 1.08 resistance; Remains below trendline from 2014 highs - bias is for bullish trend continuation above 1.07
USDJPY Defended 101.50 support on Friday; Bias remains neutral on W1 and D1 so intraday trading preferred
NZDUSD Bearish Engulfing on W1 warns of topping pattern; D1 finds resistance at 0.8717 with a break below 0.8864 confirming bearish continuation
COMMODITIES:
GOLD Remains above $1300 but Friday warns of retracement towards $1300; However preceding pattern was Morning Star Reversal om D1
SILVER Favour continued gains above $20.58; Thursday's candle confirmed a Morning Star Reversal
WTI The broken trendline from Jan lows has capped as resistance; Near-term bias is bullish with resistance at $104.85
BRENT Dark Cloud cover on D1 and back below $107.70 warns of near-term weakness
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EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.