Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
This week we present one technical view: NZD/USD – Bear trend set to continue.
Strategy Summary – Bear trend to continue. First target .6872, followed by .6560. Resistance at .7578.
The technical outlook for NZD/USD remains negative, with further weakness anticipated in due course. The sharp reversal from the major .8845/.8836 (1 August 2011 - 10 July 2014) double top reached .7177 on 3 February this year before the market bounced on the back of a 14-week bullish RSI divergence signal. The subsequent rally lacked momentum, however, and bulls could only post a high of .7745 (29 April) before losing traction.
The prior downtrend should now resume and a break below .7177 will open up falls to .7116/ .6948 (17 March 2011/25 August 2010 lows). Through here we will target the 50% retracement of the March 2009 – August 2011 advance at .6872 and possibly even the 2010 low (25 May) at .6560.
Attempts to rally should now fade under resistance at .7565/78 (14 May highs). A break above here can trigger a more substantial correction but sellers should look to re-group ahead of the 15 January year-to-date high at .7891 and the 50-week MA.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.