Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers ahead
In the euro area, we expect the flash PMI to have softened slightly in April, indicating GDP growth could ease a bit in Q2 compared with Q1.
We expect the ECB to come under pressure to ease in connection with the IMF spring meeting.
In the US, we expect March data, including retails sales, to show a weather-related rebound.
In China, we estimate GDP growth fell below the government’s 7.5% growth target in Q1.
We expect China’s Markit/HSBC to decline further in April but it looks to us as though April will be the bottom for the PMI.
Global macro and market themes
Risk markets are nervous going into the earnings season. The fall in leading indicators and stretched valuation warrant caution in stocks short term.
Bond yields and EUR/USD are range bound for now. Peripheral bond markets continue to be the big winner.
The combination of delayed ECB action and a softer view of the Fed will keep the EUR/USD range bound in the short term.
Focus
Research DKK: Another year of negative rates ahead, 11 April: We now expect Denmark’s Nationalbank to remain on hold for the coming year and keep the deposit rate negative.
Due to the Easter holiday, this week’s Weekly Focus covers two weeks.
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