1. Sell in May? Sell in June? Sell in August?
Correction odds by end of May 55% June 67% August 82%
WSNW ALERT! [Past]Time to Prepare for a Stock Market Correction
I don’t like when ALL news is GOOD news!
No strong astro view next week only fundamentals & technicals
We recommend raising some cash, especially when nontaxable, lock in profits and protect.
MARKERS: 5/7/2021 MOC DJI 34714 SPX 4226 NAS 13715
However, given there is mixed Astro in May albeit with bearish bias end of the month, we plan to play this close to the vest.
There is little REALITY to today's markets – and until a swan event &/or Robinhooders learn trees don't' grow to the sky, pyramid games can continue.
- if Bitcoin collapses (which it will sooner or later) would do it.
- Another landmine would be TNX à 2 = 20% Nasdaq correction.
- In addition to “I” word inflation, the dreaded “T” word- not the Trillion Dollar infrastructure package but TAXES!!!
- A change in perspective- comparing not to last month or last year, but a longer term horizon leaves little upside to analyst projections.
I am unwilling to buy at today’s prices.
When will investors ask “How low & How long” instead of “How far is UP” or will it always be “Buy the Dip again?
Inquiring minds want to know – WE CONTINUE TO HEDGE/BET SO.
Outside of day trading and special situations, we plan to sell/short and look to buy if/when markets are 10%-20% lower.
If markets disagree with me, we will stay with long/short strategies and/or very short term day trading.
PIVOTS 2020 Close 10%- Nov 3
DJI 34000 30606 31242 27480
SPX 4200 3756 3803 3369
NAS 14K 12888 12789 11160
BE PREPARED FOR MARKETS GO IN REVERSE vs MAKE HAY WHILE THE SUN SHINES
Some analysts are forecasting 2.5, 3% even 4% but of course just “temporary”.
Given market sky high valuations, we do not see sufficient FUNDEMENTALS (Fed accommodation, Vaccines & Stimulus Packages) to justify SP500 earnings.
Our recommendation continues to be maximum portfolio protection.
TSLA, BTC, VIX, GME & TNX are our five market “canaries in the coal mine”:
When three or more canaries sing, be ready to Head for the Hills (&/or your nearest bar) .
TNX: > 1.50-1.75
TSLA: < 695-666
VIX: > 26
BTC: < 30-38K
*Gamestop & stocks such as AMC [>5] or COIN [>250] are Like Bitcoin, their trading has little or no relationship to reality.
Short of a reality check that the emperor has NO clothes, newbies learning that all stocks do NOT go UP ALL the time can also time market tops (May/June).
TRADERS SHOULD DO QUICK DAY TRADES OR HAVE VERY DEEP POCKETS
- After hard rallies or market drops, it is smart to book profits.
- Current odds of a market leg down this coming week 50%.
Gold Buy on dips or under 1822-1816
Silver Buy on dips or under $25
Copper Overpriced > 4.50
Oil Sell 66 OB
KEY DATES: May 19, 25-27, June 10 13-17, 25-28
DJIA: 34800 PIVOT
SPX: 42000 PIVOT
NASDAQ: 4000 PIVOT
GOLD: R1 1808 R1 1850 R2 1902 R3 1925
SILVER: 26 PIVOT R1 28 R2 30
OIL: 64 PIVOT S1 60 R1 66
COPPER: 4.50 PIVOT R1 4.80 R2 5
US 10 Year: 1.60 PIVOT R1 1.75 R2 2 R3 2.20
CNY: 6.50 PIVOT
DXY: 90 S1 92 R1
VIX: 18 PIVOT R1 22 S1 16
BTC: 56 PIVOT R1 60K S1 52K
2020 CLOSE: DJIA 30606 SPX 3756 & NASDAQ 12888
2019 CLOSE: DJIA 28508 SPX 3231 & NASDAQ 8823
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635 any
AFUND Fair Value GOLD $1808
Reduce Risk and Focus on Capital Preservation:
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. A Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 5 Things to Do Now
HW: We agree with all five suggestions.
We should continue to see a continuing shift in performance away from investments that benefited from the pandemic and lockdowns - such as technology and health care stocks and bonds - to investments that will benefit from a slow but continuing recovery - like resources, industrials, infrastructure, tourism stocks and financials.
Keep a list of stocks to buy AFTER a 20% correction.
SELL/STOP STOCKS you wouldn’t buy at current prices, write Covered Calls & reduce margin/raise cash levels.
If this is not upcoming soon, then we will remain highly liquid and wait for the music to stop or Godot to arrive, whichever comes first.
Outside of Special Situations, we plan to only VERY selectively add stocks largely in two of our favorite sectors - metals & mining and entertainment.
Favorite Q2 2021 Sectors:
Entertainment, Mining & Technology [AFTER a 20% correction if Undervalued & Highly Scalable]
Currently we are also watching some Select Health Care (lower cost/better outcomes, Energy & Distressed Investing for Q3 2021.
Stock selection is important. Whenever possible, we prefer to recommend stocks sporting strong cash flows, sound balance sheets & growing dividends.
Choose your favorite stocks and patiently bid for them.
3.Given newbie gold and silver investors have little knowledge of the industry and many are accustomed to Tech valuations, is there an upper limit to Gold or Silver pricing? Maybe not!
Should/When Bitcoin meet reality, it is likely to usher in a rapid source of many of these new investors.
Conservative investors would accept $2200-2300, while more aggressive gold and silver bugs have gold targets of 2500-3000+; silver $35 to $50+.
Silver $25 support with $30 overhead resistance.
Gold: Fundamentally the global political and economic situation is very favorable for precious metals.
Precious metals remain favorite sections. Many generalist investors now have some interest in Metals and Mining.
Also it is under allocated by most investment programs, this gives it even more potential room to run, especially if/when inflation fears resurface &/or US dollar weakens!
Hence we recommend a full and over weighted precious metals portfolio allocation.
However, we advise long term precious metal investors to also pay attention to stock selection.
- Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
- For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
- Once again some investors are hedging record equity prices by buying gold.
- Low real interest rates is positive for gold as well as low global bond yields makes gold an attractive alternative risk mitigation hedge.
- We expect precious metal stocks to outperform physical gold & silver in 2021.
Gold FV $1808 = Commodity FV: 1650 + Currency FV: 1790 + Inflation Metal FV: 1760 + Crisis FV: 2032
INVESTORS: We will stay LONG in H1 2021 both as an investment and as a portfolio hedge. Despite seasonal trends, we expect gold to largely perform well April on
4. May seasoned speculator pick AVIVAGEN
These high risk/high reward market picks could be potentially very rewarding and/or interesting to watch.
These picks are best for speculative portfolio allocation and often bought in groups of 5 to 10 such stocks.
Remember NOT to ignore their High Risk - meaning use speculative allocation i.e. “money you can afford to lose without altering your life style.”
Always do due diligence before deciding to act.
The Astrologers Fund (AFUND) is not a registered broker dealer, CTA or a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not ensure future results, and there is no assurance that any of the Astrologers Fund's recommendations achieve their investment objectives. The Astrologers Fund Inc. makes no claims concerning the validity of the information provided herein, and will not be held liable for any use thereof. If you are dissatisfied with the information found on this website, your sole and exclusive remedy is to discontinue use of the information. No information or opinion expressed here is a solicitation to buy or sell securities, bonds, futures or options. Opinions expressed are not recommendations for any particular investor to purchase or sell any particular security or financial instrument, or that any security or financial instrument is suitable for any particular investor. Each investor should determine whether a particular security or financial instrument is suitable based on the investor's individual investment objectives, other security holdings, financial situation and needs, and tax status. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Contact The Astrologers Fund, Inc. 310 Lexington Avenue Suite #3G, New York, N.Y. 10016 Email [email protected] 212 949 7275 [email protected]