USD/TRY outlook: Turkish lira cracks psychological 20 support and hits new record low against Dollar

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

USD/TRY

The Turkish fell to new record low against US dollar in early Friday, on probe through psychological 20 level.

Fresh weakness came ahead of this weekend’s presidential election runoff, with President Erdogan so far being well ahead of his main rival and having a chance to extends his rule into a third decade.

Lira has weakened nearly 8% so far this year, mainly due to devastating earthquakes in February. The currency has lost around 40% of its value in 2022, when high inflation strongly hit investors’ sentiment, along with unorthodox methods of the central bank, on cutting interest rates against widely expected hikes in such situation.

President Erdogan was blamed by the media of influencing the central bank’s monetary policy decisions, while he argued that lower borrowing cost would boost production and the latest results showed that inflation in Turkey was halved.

Markets keep bearish outlook for lira and expect it to accelerate loses if President Erdogan wins another mandate, while sustained break of pivotal 20 barrier would also generate strong bearish signal and expose targets at 21 (round figure), followed by Fibo projections at 21.45 and 22.41.

Res: 20.0000; 20.2031; 20.5000; 21.0000.
Sup: 19.9742; 19.9332; 19.8953; 19.8105.

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD slumps below 1.1800 on hawkish Fed Minutes, eyes on ECB succession

The EUR/USD pair tumbles to a near two-week low around 1.1785 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Euro on hawkish FOMC minutes that revived speculation about potential interest rate hikes if inflation remains elevated.

GBP/USD extends decline as weak jobs data bolsters BoE rate cut bets

The Pound Sterling continued to backslide under sustained pressure on Wednesday, following through after the UK employment report on Tuesday showed a labour market deteriorating faster than expected.

Gold consolidates the rebound below $5,000, US data eyed

Gold price consolidates the previous rebound below $5,000 in the Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal recovered on Wednesday amid shifts in geopolitical sentiment, boosting safe-haven demand. Traders will keep an eye on the release of US Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales data, and the Fedspeak later on Thursday.

Bitcoin approaches a critical zone: Bear pennant projects $56,000

Based on the most recent analyses from February 2026, the short answer is that it is highly unlikely that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this month.

Mixed UK inflation data no gamechanger for the Bank of England

Food inflation plunged in January, but service sector price pressure is proving stickier. We continue to expect Bank of England rate cuts in March and June. The latest UK inflation read is a mixed bag for the Bank of England, but we doubt it drastically changes the odds of a March rate cut.

Sui extends sideways action ahead of Grayscale’s GSUI ETF launch

Sui is extending its downtrend for the second consecutive day, trading at 0.95 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The Layer-1 token is down over 16% in February and approximately 34% from the start of the year, aligning with the overall bearish sentiment across the crypto market.