On Feb 24th in regards to USD/CAD at then 1.2655 it was written, USD/CAD price was low, averages were low, USD/CAD was oversold and USD/CAD must and will travel higher. The support point then was 1.2585, today its 1.2719. Break points above were, 1.2908, 1.2972 and the last level at 1.3100. Above 1.3100, USD/CAD left its range.
USD/CAD as written bolted to current 1.2983 and high at 1.2993 then lingered. Took 3 weeks to run 338 pips or 112 pips per week. USD/CAD's story is its stuck, contained by its averages and has problems.
In the larger story, USD/CAD's price remains barely above neutral while the daily side reveals USD/CAD sits dead on the floor and resembles USD/JPY's position. USD/CAD desperately wants to travel higher but is contained by its highest average 1.3092 and down from 1.3100 from 3 weeks ago.
Above and only break points are located at 1.2931, 1.2952 and 1.3092. Above 1.3092, USD/CAD leaves its range and must return. USD/CAD is located at the top of its range and a noted point at 1.3092 is down from 1.3100 from 3 weeks ago.
The overall status on the bottom are vital averages at 1.1931 and 1.1802. At overbought 1.1931 remains the problem average as USD/CAD at 1.2900's is 446 pips off from its range at 1.2537. Despite a low low price, USD/CAD daily averages from 5 to 253 days are also overbought.
USD/CAD break points below are located at 1.2720, 1.2637, 1.2474, 1.2355 and 1.2232. Despite overbought, USD/CAD is well supported at 1.2720 and 1.2637 as well as its 5 year average at 1.2174.
The 5 year average means 1.1931 holds. Lower for CAD and to gain down speed, it must break its vital point at 1.2720. The overall range from 1.2720 is located from 1.2585 to 1.2855 and again at 1.2900's, CAD remains outside its range. At 1.2585 reveals 1.2537 is well protected.
In days and weeks ahead as USD/CAD averages rightsize, 2 vital targets and overbought sell points exists at 1.3143 and 1.3125.
Despite a low price and struggles against overbought, USD/CAD range is located from 1.2720 to 1.3092 and a short term strategy to sell rallies. Longer term, USD/CAD as well as its counterpart USD/JPY is heading much higher.
USD/CAD's low price means drops can't hold, range tops means USD/CAD struggles to head higher and overbought means CAD must travel lower. USD/CAD at present is an extraordinarily complicated currency pair and may require a few weeks to rightsize in order to see a worthwhile trade.
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