Economic data
- (PT) Portugal May Retail Sales M/M: 0.2% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 3.5% prior
- (PT) Portugal May Industrial Production M/M: 1.2% v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: +3.2% v 0.5% prior
- (IT) Italy May PPI M/M: +0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -2.7% v -3.0% prior
- (IE) Ireland Jun Unemployment Rate: 9.7% v 9.7% prior
- (IE) Ireland Jun Consumer Confidence: 102.8 v 98.5 prior
- (US) Goldman Economist Chain Store Sales w/e Jun 26th w/w: +2.2%; y/y: +2.7%
- (ZA) South Africa May Budget Balance (ZAR): -18.5B v -21.8Be
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Jun Inflation Expectations Survey: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (ZA) South Africa May Trade Balance (ZAR): +5.0B v -3.2Be
- (PL) Poland Q1 Current Account Balance: €1.7B v €2.2Be
- (CL) Chile May Total Copper Production: 508.3K v 471.4K prior
- (BR) Brazil May PPI Manufacturing M/M: 0.2% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.1% v 5.7% prior
- (CA) Canada Apr GDP M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.5%e
- (US) Weekly Redbook Sales w/e Jun 26th: 1.7% y/y, Jun MTD m/m: -1.5%; Jun MTD y/y: +1.4%
- (US) Jun ISM Milwaukee: 46.6 v 47.7 prior
- (US) Apr S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: -0.30% v 0.80%e; Y/Y: 4.91% v 5.50%e; HPI NSA: 177.01 v 175.2 prior
- (US) Jun Chicago Purchasing Manager: 49.4 v 50.0e
- (US) Jun Consumer Confidence Index: 101.4 v 96.7e
Volatility continues to shake global markets this morning as another day brings another round of Greece rumors. In Asia, Chinese stocks closed 5.5% higher, having been as much as 5.1% lower during the session. Yesterday the S&P500 fell more than 2%, coming within points of its 200-day moving average, both the S&P500 and the DJIA erased their gains on the year, while the VIX volatility index rose 34% to 19, the biggest gain since April 2013. Today the VIX remains just shy of 19 while US stocks are still in the green. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.16%, the S&P500 is up 0.48% and the Nasdaq is up 0.43%.
After multiple Eurozone officials said that the door was still open for a deal, the Greeks have taken them at their word and reportedly asked for a new two-year, €29 billion bailout via the ESM with a parallel debt restructuring. German officials were calling on Athens to cancel Sunday's Greek referendum in order to provide space to examine the new proposal, while Chancellor Merkel indicated there will be no "new developments" on Greece today. Note that the Greeks have already confirmed that they will not be making the IMF payment due today, although for its part an IMF spokesperson clarified that in official document "arrears" will be used to characterize Greece's non-payment rather than "default."
Celgene has acquired a 10% stake in Juno Therapeutics as part of a wide-ranging cancer treatment partnership, paying $93/shr, a premium of around 100% on yesterday's closing price. The massive premium gets Celgene in on Juno's Car-T therapy, which involves extracting a cancer patient's white blood cells, re-engineering them to attack tumors, and then reintroducing them into the body. Shares of JUNO are up ~20% as of writing, well off their premarket highs, as analysts debate whether or not Celgene overpaid for its stake. Several other small biotech names are seeing strong gains, including LBIO and KITE.
Looking Ahead
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia May Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.3%e v 10.5% prior; National Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.5% prior
- 12:00 (US) USDA Quarterly Report
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Bullard (Non voter)
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Construction Activity M/M: No est v 4.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.6% prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico May YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -121.6B prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Jun CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan BOJ Q2 Tankan Large Manufacturer Index: 12e v 12 prior; Outlook Survey: 14e v 10 prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan BOJ Q2 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturer Index: 22e v 19 prior; Outlook Survey: 23e v 17 prior
- 20:00 (KR) South Korea Jun PMI Manufacturing: No est v 47.8 prior
- 20:00 (KR) South Korea Jun Trade Balance: $8.5Be v 6.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: -2.0%e v -10.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: -10.8%e v 15.4% prior (revised from 15.3%)
- 21:00 (CN) China Jun Manufacturing PMI (Official): 50.4e v 50.2 prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Jun Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.2 prior
- 21:35 (JP) Japan Jun Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 49.9 prelim
- 21:45 (CN) China Jun Final HSBC PMI Manufacturing: 49.6e v 49.6 prelim
- 22:00 (TW) Taiwan Jun Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.3 prior
- 22:00 (VN) Vietnam Jun Manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.8 prior
- 23:00 (ID) Indonesia Jun PMI Manufacturing: No est v 47.1 prior
- (PT) Portugal May Retail Sales M/M: 0.2% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 3.5% prior
- (PT) Portugal May Industrial Production M/M: 1.2% v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: +3.2% v 0.5% prior
- (IT) Italy May PPI M/M: +0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -2.7% v -3.0% prior
- (IE) Ireland Jun Unemployment Rate: 9.7% v 9.7% prior
- (IE) Ireland Jun Consumer Confidence: 102.8 v 98.5 prior
- (US) Goldman Economist Chain Store Sales w/e Jun 26th w/w: +2.2%; y/y: +2.7%
- (ZA) South Africa May Budget Balance (ZAR): -18.5B v -21.8Be
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Jun Inflation Expectations Survey: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (ZA) South Africa May Trade Balance (ZAR): +5.0B v -3.2Be
- (PL) Poland Q1 Current Account Balance: €1.7B v €2.2Be
- (CL) Chile May Total Copper Production: 508.3K v 471.4K prior
- (BR) Brazil May PPI Manufacturing M/M: 0.2% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.1% v 5.7% prior
- (CA) Canada Apr GDP M/M: -0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.5%e
- (US) Weekly Redbook Sales w/e Jun 26th: 1.7% y/y, Jun MTD m/m: -1.5%; Jun MTD y/y: +1.4%
- (US) Jun ISM Milwaukee: 46.6 v 47.7 prior
- (US) Apr S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: -0.30% v 0.80%e; Y/Y: 4.91% v 5.50%e; HPI NSA: 177.01 v 175.2 prior
- (US) Jun Chicago Purchasing Manager: 49.4 v 50.0e
- (US) Jun Consumer Confidence Index: 101.4 v 96.7e
Volatility continues to shake global markets this morning as another day brings another round of Greece rumors. In Asia, Chinese stocks closed 5.5% higher, having been as much as 5.1% lower during the session. Yesterday the S&P500 fell more than 2%, coming within points of its 200-day moving average, both the S&P500 and the DJIA erased their gains on the year, while the VIX volatility index rose 34% to 19, the biggest gain since April 2013. Today the VIX remains just shy of 19 while US stocks are still in the green. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.16%, the S&P500 is up 0.48% and the Nasdaq is up 0.43%.
After multiple Eurozone officials said that the door was still open for a deal, the Greeks have taken them at their word and reportedly asked for a new two-year, €29 billion bailout via the ESM with a parallel debt restructuring. German officials were calling on Athens to cancel Sunday's Greek referendum in order to provide space to examine the new proposal, while Chancellor Merkel indicated there will be no "new developments" on Greece today. Note that the Greeks have already confirmed that they will not be making the IMF payment due today, although for its part an IMF spokesperson clarified that in official document "arrears" will be used to characterize Greece's non-payment rather than "default."
Celgene has acquired a 10% stake in Juno Therapeutics as part of a wide-ranging cancer treatment partnership, paying $93/shr, a premium of around 100% on yesterday's closing price. The massive premium gets Celgene in on Juno's Car-T therapy, which involves extracting a cancer patient's white blood cells, re-engineering them to attack tumors, and then reintroducing them into the body. Shares of JUNO are up ~20% as of writing, well off their premarket highs, as analysts debate whether or not Celgene overpaid for its stake. Several other small biotech names are seeing strong gains, including LBIO and KITE.
Looking Ahead
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia May Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.3%e v 10.5% prior; National Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.5% prior
- 12:00 (US) USDA Quarterly Report
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Bullard (Non voter)
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Construction Activity M/M: No est v 4.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.6% prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico May YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -121.6B prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Jun CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan BOJ Q2 Tankan Large Manufacturer Index: 12e v 12 prior; Outlook Survey: 14e v 10 prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan BOJ Q2 Tankan Large Non-Manufacturer Index: 22e v 19 prior; Outlook Survey: 23e v 17 prior
- 20:00 (KR) South Korea Jun PMI Manufacturing: No est v 47.8 prior
- 20:00 (KR) South Korea Jun Trade Balance: $8.5Be v 6.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: -2.0%e v -10.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: -10.8%e v 15.4% prior (revised from 15.3%)
- 21:00 (CN) China Jun Manufacturing PMI (Official): 50.4e v 50.2 prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Jun Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.2 prior
- 21:35 (JP) Japan Jun Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 49.9 prelim
- 21:45 (CN) China Jun Final HSBC PMI Manufacturing: 49.6e v 49.6 prelim
- 22:00 (TW) Taiwan Jun Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.3 prior
- 22:00 (VN) Vietnam Jun Manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.8 prior
- 23:00 (ID) Indonesia Jun PMI Manufacturing: No est v 47.1 prior
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