Good Data No Help for Cautious Sentiment

Economic Data

- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left its One-Week Auction Rate unchanged at 8.00% (as expected)
- (EU) ECB: 16 banks to repay total €6.0B in 3-Year LTRO Funds vs. €4.0Be
- (BR) Brazil July Economic Activity Index M/M: 1.5% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -1.0%e
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Sept 5th: $317.3B v $318.6B prior
- (IN) India Aug CPI Y/Y: 7.8% v 7.8%e
- (IN) India July Industrial Production Y/Y: 0.5% v 1.9%e
- (IS) Iceland Aug Unemployment Rate: 3.1% v 3.1% prior
- (PL) Poland Aug M3 Money Supply M/M: 1.8% v 0.7%e; y/Y: 7.4% v 6.3%e
- (US) Aug Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M:0.3 % v 0.2%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Retail Sales Control Group: 0.4% v 0.5%e
- (US) Aug Import Price Index M/M: -0.9% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.4%e
- (CA) Canada Aug Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: 0.8% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.9% prior; House Price index: 167.12 v 165.84 prior
- (US) Sept Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 84.6 v 83.3e
- (US) July Business Inventories: 0.4% v 0.4%e

- US equity indices are seeing their fourth consecutive morning in the red as caution continues to dominate markets. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.11%, the S&P500 is down 0.37% and the Nasdaq is down 0.19%.

- The August retail sales report was decent, with another month of incremental gains, and the July report was revised up to +0.3% from flat. University of Michigan Confidence sentiment hit a 14-month high in September, which should support expectations for sturdy growth in the third quarter. The UST 10-year yield has come off in a big way after the data, trading above 2.60% for the first time since late July. Note that fixed income traders are also beginning to position themselves ahead of next week's Fed meeting as well, in anticipation of a potential change in statement language as part of the move towards tighter policy.

- Gold has seen three solid days of declines, and this morning the contract has sunk to levels last seen early January, to around $1,228. Note that the 2013 low was around $1,185. Analysts continue to cite speculation that the Fed is moving closer to raising interest rates for the weakness in precious metals. Crude continues to languish in the $92 handle.

- Shares of eBay have gained 4.5% in the early going on a rumor making the rounds that Google is looking to acquire a big stake in the company to provide a leg up on Amazon and Alibaba in the ecommerce space, not to mention as a hedge against Apple's big new move into mobile payments. Note that Carl Icahn continues to push eBay to spin off PayPal and eBay's chiefs continue to push back against his initiative.

- Amarin plummeted 26% in the premarket on robust volume after the FDA denied the company's appeal seeking re-instatement of the Special Protocol Assessment covering the phase III ANCHOR study of its prescription Vascepa pill. This is the third time Amarin has lost an appeal of the Vascepa SPA. Analysts suggest that with these big declines and Amarin's Irish domicile, the company could be a rich candidate for a US pharma name looking for a tax inversion deal.

- Shares of Darden have been volatile following earnings. The casual dining chain met expectations in its first quarter report and reaffirmed its FY14 outlook. Olive Garden comps were negative, however, suggesting the firm's continuing attempts to reboot the franchise have yet to yield big gains.

Looking Ahead

- (GR) Greece Sovereign Debt Rating published by S&P
- (IE) Ireland Sovereign Debt Rating might be published by Moody's
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 27.9% prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank's Economists Survey and Monetary Policy Minutes
- (AR) Argentina Aug National Urban CPI M/M: No est v 1.4% prior

Weekend