Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
GBP/JPY 4H Chart: Falling Wedge
Comment: GBP/JPY finds itself in an equivocal situation. On the one hand, the currency pair is currently forming a falling wedge, a pattern that implies a rally. On the other hand, even if the price manages to jump over the resistance trend-line at 160 yen, long positions would still be highly risky. The reason is a large amount of obstacles that would lay in the recovery’s path. The first to be encountered is the 200-period SMA at 160.93, followed by the monthly PP at 162.21 and finally by the major down-trend line at the level of 164 yen. At the same time, in case the Sterling slips under the lower boundary of the wedge and updates the March 24 low, the rate should slide down to the February low at 154.74 without any hindrance.
AUD/NZD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: AUD/NZD is in a consolidation phase after the February 26-March 9 up-move, and at the moment the outlook is bullish. The currency pair has just confirmed the lower boundary of the slightly ascending channel, meaning we are likely to see the rebound extending up towards 1.1372. The longer-term prospects, however, are not as bright. The rate is closing in on the major supply area that has proven to be important for the market participants during the last three years, meaning the chance of it giving in to the bulls is slim. At the same time, the Australian Dollar is moderately overbought—59% of open positions are long, which further decreases the probability of AUD/NZD breaching the ceiling at 1.14.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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