Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/ZAR 4H Chart: Falling Wedge
Comment: We should be wary of a potential bullish breakout this week. The currency pair is trading in a well-defined falling wedge, a pattern that portends a rise in demand. The key resistance is therefore the red trend-line. If the price closes above 15.94, this will be a strong argument in favour of the Dollar resuming the rally that started in October last year. However, there will still be tough obstacles in the way, namely the monthly pivot point at 16.1270, the 200-period moving average at 16.20, and the January high at 17 rands. Alternatively, should the lower boundary of the pattern give in first, the focus will be on the demand area at 15.31/15.25, where the weekly S2 is joined by the monthly S1.
EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: The ascending channel emerging in the four-hour chart is a bullish wave within a major rising wedge forming in the weekly timeframe. As a result, EUR/AUD has the potential to rise beyond 2015’s high, up to 1.68. In the meantime, the short-term outlook is also bullish, being that the pair has just confirmed strong support at 1.5580/40, where the lower boundary of the channel is reinforced by the weekly S1 and 200-period SMA. The target is now the last year’s maximum at 1.66, where we also have the monthly R2 and the upper trend-line of the pattern. As for the sentiment in the market, the traders seem undecided, being that 53% of open positions are long and 47% are short.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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