Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: We hold a bearish bias with respect to EUR/TRY. The main reason is the falling resistance trend-line, the beginning of which may be traced back to mid-October. The price is expected to bounce off of 3.0667 and push through the early Nov low. This will pave the way for a decline down to the lower boundary of the pattern, namely 3.0230, where we also have the Aug low. At the same time, a close above 3.0667 will imply a rally towards 3.1050 (weekly PP), but the recovery may have difficulties already at 3.0955, the current location of the 200-day SMA. However, the counter-argument is the sentiment in the market: the Euro is oversold, being that 74% of positions are short.
USD/CHF 1H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: USD/CHF is in a strong up-trend at the moment that started last month after a test of the 200-day SMA. Today the price is expected to rebound from a strong demand level at 1.0150 and top out at 1.0237 after breaking trough the weekly R3. The fact that the bears hold a majority of positions (72%), increases the likelihood of a rally. However, we should note that the rate is approaching the highest since January level, namely 1.03, meaning long-term long positions are risky. Meanwhile, a dive under the lower trend-line will invalidate the bullish outlook, and our focus will then shift to the weekly R1 at 1.0108. Additional supports will be the 200-hour SMA at 1.0080 and the weekly PP at 1.0050.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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