EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Rising Wedge

GBP/NZD 1H Chart: Falling Wedge

Comment: The short-term outlook is bearish, as the pair has just bounced off the resistance trend-line. Additionally, the one-hour and four-hour technical indicators are mostly pointing south. Still, after the price touches 2.3357 there is likely to be a recovery with a subsequent upward break-out, as GBP/NZD is closing in on the apex of the falling wedge, namely a bullish pattern. This will be confirmed once we see a close above 2.36. In this case the first major target will be the 200-hour SMA at 2.39, followed by a solid resistance level at 2.46, represented by the September high. Meanwhile, the SWFX traders are almost equally divided between the bulls and bears: 53% of them are long and 47% are short.

EUR/PLN 1H Chart: Rising Wedge

Comment: EUR/PLN is approaching the August peak, which is expected to be a turning point for the currency pair’s two-week recovery. A dip beneath 4.25 (up-trend and weekly PP) will confirm a bearish break-out, and there are unlikely to be any significant rallies before the price hits 4.2350, where the 200-hour SMA coincides with the weekly S1. In the long run, however, the sell-off will be expected to extend down to the last month’s minimum at 4.18. On the other hand, if the Euro manages to climb over 4.27, it will open a way towards 4.37, which is so far this year’s highest point. The SWFX traders’ sentiment is negative, being that only 28% of market participants are currently holding long positions.

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