EUR/SEK 4H Chart: Channel Up

NZD/CAD 4H Chart: Channel Up

Comment: The near-term future of NZD/CAD is more or less clear. Considering that the pair has formed a channel and has crossed the 200-period SMA, the outlook is bullish. The positive bias is also reinforced by the four-hour and daily technicals. Beyond the next several weeks however, the outlook is unclear. First, because most of the weekly indicators are giving ‘sell’ signals. Secondly, because the main Fibonacci retracement levels of the Mar-Jun decline remain intact, meaning the latest recovery should still be considered a correction and may well turn out to be short-lived. This is perhaps the reason why the sentiment is neutral: 46% longs and 54% shorts.

EUR/SEK 4H Chart: Channel Up

Comment: Right now EUR/SEK is prone to a decline, as the pair has just confirmed the upper resistance trend-line. Weakness should be only temporary however, and before the rate dips beneath 9.35, the bulls are expected to regain control of the pair. At the same time the positive outlook on the Euro is implied by the technical studies and by the fact that recently EUR/SEK has managed to gain a foothold above 9.42, a level that played an important role in April and May. Because of this we estimate that the upward momentum will hold out until the test of the February high at 9.69. But the SWFX market is sceptical with respect to the Euro’s ability to outperform the Krona: 73% of open positions are now short.