Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/SGD 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: Although we do not have many confirmations of the trend-lines, there is a good chance AUD/SGD will keep trending downwards. The upper boundary of the channel is currently reinforced by the long-term moving average, and this strengthens our negative bias. The Aussie is expected to aim for the lower trend-line at 0.99 while being capped by a dense supply area between 1.0200 and 1.0270. If this does not prove to be the case, the target will shift to 1.04, where the monthly pivot point merges with the Jul 1 high. Meanwhile, a significant majority of the SWFX market participants is bullish the Australian Dollar. At the moment 72% of open positions are long.
EUR/CAD 1H Chart: Triangle
Comment: EUR/CAD is closing in on the apex of the symmetrical triangle, and this motivates us to prepare for a break-out. Considering that before the pattern the currency pair was bullish, our base case scenario is a close above the red line and a rally towards 1.4350 (1.41 + the height of the triangle). To realise this the Euro will have to break supply at 1.4090, created by the weekly PP and 200-hour SMA. Conversely, if there is not enough demand around 1.4050 to trigger a surge, the price may well fall down to 1.3990/70 before stabilising. As for the sentiment, the traders are divided. Right now 55% of positions are long and the remaining 45% are short.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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