Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/CHF 1H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: Considering the fact that USD/CHF has formed a bullish channel and a lot of technical indicators are currently pointing upwards, we expect further strengthening of the US Dollar. However, there is likely to be a small sell-off before the latest rally resumes. The base case scenario is a decline down to the support trend-line at 0.9350, followed by a rally towards the May high at 0.9544. But the currency pair may make a U-turn earlier, namely at 0.9376, where the daily S2 merges with the 200-hour SMA. Meanwhile, the sentiment is strongly bullish: at the moment three in four positions open in the SWFX market are long.
GBP/AUD 4H Chart: Rising Wedge
Comment: GBP/AUD is bearish in the short term, and there are significant downside risks in the longer run, despite the major up-trend still being intact. During the next several days the rate should descend some 400 pips from 2.0851 (monthly R1 and up-trend), regardless of the bullish technical studies, though the latter fact could delay the sell-off. When the price reaches the lower boundary of the rising wedge, we should be on a lookout for a break-out, which will open up a way towards 1.96 (Jun 3 low and 11-month up-trend). However, there are still going to be significant demand areas left, such as 2.0250 (monthly PP and Jun 25 low) and 2.01 (weekly S2 and 200-period SMA).
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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