Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
EUR/PLN 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: Both the short and long-term outlooks on EUR/PLN are positive. The exchange rate is expected to rebound from the lower trend-line at 4.1556 and eventually reach the upper boundary of the pattern. The bullish bias is reinforced by the technical indicators, which are pointing north on all time-frames. However, we should still be wary of the nearby resistances. The immediate supply area is around 4.1892, represented by the monthly R1 and Jun 19 high, followed by the Feb high at 4.2261 and the Jan 29 high at 4.2538. However, despite all the arguments in favour of a rally the SWFX market is net short the Euro. Right now merely 26% of all open positions are long.
CHF/JPY 4H Chart: Double Top
Comment: Although since mid-March CHF/JPY has been in a strong up-trend, there are plenty of reasons to doubt further strengthening of the Swiss Franc. The main argument in favour of a reversal is formation of a double top. In order to confirm a change in the direction of the pair, the price should close below the neck-line at 131.50 (Jun 15 low and 200-period SMA). The target will then be the May 19 low at 128.19. However, if support at 131.50 withstands the selling pressure, the pair will likely surge back to 134.50, namely to the Jun 17 high. In the meantime, SWFX market participants are inclined to be bearish, and 58% of presently open positions are short.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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