Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/CAD 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: Considering the recent behaviour of USD/CAD, the currency pair is likely forming a bearish channel, even though the upper edge of the pattern is yet to be confirmed. Right now the US Dollar is supposed to move upwards, but the gains should be limited by the falling trend-line at 1.2250, which is reinforced by the weekly R1 and monthly PP levels. From here the price will be expected to fall through the Apr 29 low towards 1.18. In case 1.2250 fails as a ceiling, additional supply area is at 1.2370, represented by the weekly R2 and 200-period SMA. Meanwhile, most the SWFX market participants prefer to be short the Greenback, namely 62% of them.
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Falling Wedge
Comment: Yesterday we noted that USD/PLN might be forming a channel. Looking at the bigger picture, it does seem that there might be actually a falling wedge pattern emerging on the chart. What will decide which pattern is going to develop further is a test of the support at 3.37. If it holds and triggers a rally beyond 3.61, then we should expect an eventual breach of the red trend-line. On the other hand, if the bears push through the support line at 3.57, this will confirm the bearish outlook, and the price will be set to decline to 3.52. Consulting the SWFX traders, a majority of them (67.5%) considers the second scenario as more likely, being that they are currently holding short positions.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.