Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/NZD 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: The market is bearish since the beginning of November 2014, when AUD/NZD once again confirmed resistance at 1.13 after several unsuccessful attempts to breach it. Right now the currency pair is struggling to break support at 1.03, but the risks are skewed to the downside, and the Aussie is expected to keep descending until it reaches the lower boundary of the channel, while the down-trend at 1.0430 should stay intact. This scenario is reinforced by the technical indicators on the daily and weekly time-frames, as most studies are currently pointing south. However, the SWFX sentiment is strongly bullish—74% of all open positions are long.
CAD/CHF 4H Chart: Rising Wedge
Comment: Soon after a removal of the peg and precipitous rally of the Franc, the currency started to lose value. However, demand for the Loonie, as evidenced by formation of the wedge, appears to be weakening at the moment. Consequently, the possibility of a reversal is increasing. Should the support line be violated, one of the first targets will be a cluster of supports at 0.75, where the Feb 24 low merges with the weekly S1 and monthly PP. If the selling pressure persists, which is likely, the next bearish wave may stop just beneath 0.74, where the weekly S3 coincides with the monthly S1 and 200-period SMA. Meanwhile, the SWFX sentiment is positive, with 70% of traders holding longs.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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