Greek problem limits the EUR upside, outlook remains bearish

EUR continues to be under downside pressure because of the financial problems with Greece and speculations that it mey leave the Eurozone next month. Of course such a move will throw financial markets in panic and the pair will drop below 1.000. This will make the dollar very expensive and the price will have a negative impact of the US export too. Above 1.0750 some limited upside is possible to 1.0900 for example where we shall meet the Senkou Span A price level of the Daily cloud. For now EUR seems not strong enough to enter the cloud and i expect we shall stay below it for the next 2 weeks at least. So the outlook here is sideways to bearish trade. More upside recovery only on a Daily close above 1.1000. For now we have formed a good support area at 1.0500, so you may use range 1.0500-1.0900 for a range trade strategy.

GOLD performed a small range trade these days and has already entered a wide negative cloud which is quite likely to reject the price and to set a downside direction. Above 1202 we are bullish and below 1192 we are bearish with intermediate support at 1185. Below that next support is 1156. Upside is limited by the 1226 Daily SMA200 level,and further upside is possible only on a clear break and Daily close above 1230 which for now seems difficult.

NZD got enough power to jump higher and to break the gravity of the negative Daily cloud, however the upside is limited by the Daily SMA200 at 0.7860. Of course we have much space as the current price is around 0.7710. It is good to know that some more tests of the support at 0.7580 may appear, so be careful and use that level to open LONG positions.

AUD has entered the negative Daily cloud too but here the resistance is very strong and the first attempt is more likely to fail. Daily support is 0.7730 followed by 0.7680. below the second downside will continue to 0.7500 again. Upside is limited by the 0.7880 and 0.7930. For now indicators show some more upside from current level 0.7800.

JPY has returned some of the lost positions last week and is currently at the support level 118.80, breaking below will exit the Daily positive cloud and next target will be set around 117.60-70. Upside is limited by 119.60. To restore the upside we need a Daily close above 120.50. the outlook here is sideways trade to bearish.

GBP has suddenly reversed the bearish move and returned back close to 1.5000. We have immediate resistance at 1.5040 and a break of this level is needed to continue with the upside and to break above the thin negative Daily cloud. We are bullish above 1.4940 and we have a pretty wide area of uncertainty between 1.4800 and 1.4940. Inside that everything may happen so better stay aside.

RUB has made the first attempt to break the Daily SMA200 at 49.40, and of course it was not successful. However this test is the first step of the long way. The Russian currency is now back to the resistance price level at 52.60. You may try some SHORT here. We have a small intermediate support at 51.80-90 and breaking below will continue to 50.40 and below 50.00 then. Resistances are 52.60 then 54.50 and 55.60.

For today:

LONG EUR above 1.0750 SL 1.0740 TP 1.0810-1.0850-1.0880

SHORT EUR below 1.0920 SL 1.0930 TP 1.0850-1.0740-1.0690-1.0630-1.0575

LONG GOLD above 1202 SL 1199 TP 1212-1218-1224

SHORT GOLD below 1193 SL 1196 TP 1185-1178-1166-1156

Good luck!