Gold:

Here are the bearish fundamentals. Higher interest rates and a higher $ are bearish for gold over the longer-term. In addition, the decline from the September 2011 high has retraced a large proportion of the price rise from the 1933 low. Tony Plummer of London (Helmsman Economics) points out that the 2011-2015 decline retraced more than 38% of the rally from 1933 to 2011. The violation of the 38% level suggests that there has been a shift in the underlying fundamentals. I think that this price move is telling us that the ability of governments to boost the economy by having central banks inflate the currency is failing. A unit of credit is not buying the economic growth that it formerly did. Or, I can say that the marginal efficiency of debt is declining. As I have written, the most over-inflated asset is government. The markets have been trying to deflate government, but bureaucrats have been fighting this natural market process.

 

Jupiter Cycle Versus Gold

 
Gold could fall to $800-$840 longer-term. The long-term cycle below bottoms in June. June and August are seasonally the 2 most likely months for a gold bottom. We are unlikely to see a sustained rally before then.

 

Monthly Expected Return- Gold



 


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This is an excerpt from the monthly Cycles Research Early Warning Service, a monthly e-mail report that analyzes the trends in the US stock market, the bond market, and the gold market. There are stock and ETF recommendations and high-probability S&P turning points.

Cycles Research Early Warning Service has been ranked the top stock market timing service for 2016 by Timer Digest, an independent rating service in Ct., USA.

Cycles Research Investments, LLC does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this report, nor is any liability assumed for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon such information. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and are for general information only. The data used for this report is from sources deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed for accuracy. Past performance is not a guide or guarantee of future performance. The information contained in this report may not be published, broadcast, re-written, or otherwise distributed without prior written consent.

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