Here are the bearish fundamentals. Higher interest rates and a higher $ are bearish for gold over the longer-term. In addition, the decline from the September 2011 high has retraced a large proportion of the price rise from the 1933 low. Tony Plummer of London (Helmsman Economics) points out that the 2011-2015 decline retraced more than 38% of the rally from 1933 to 2011. The violation of the 38% level suggests that there has been a shift in the underlying fundamentals. I think that this price move is telling us that the ability of governments to boost the economy by having central banks inflate the currency is failing. A unit of credit is not buying the economic growth that it formerly did. Or, I can say that the marginal efficiency of debt is declining. As I have written, the most over-inflated asset is government. The markets have been trying to deflate government, but bureaucrats have been fighting this natural market process.


Jupiter Cycle Versus Gold

Gold could fall to $800-$840 longer-term. The long-term cycle below bottoms in June. June and August are seasonally the 2 most likely months for a gold bottom. We are unlikely to see a sustained rally before then.


Monthly Expected Return- Gold


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This is an excerpt from the monthly Cycles Research Early Warning Service, a monthly e-mail report that analyzes the trends in the US stock market, the bond market, and the gold market. There are stock and ETF recommendations and high-probability S&P turning points.

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EUR/USD clings to 3.5-week’s high, trades above 1.1000 figure

The pair is challenging the 1.1047 resistance. EUR/USD bull recovery from 34-month lows remains intact. Further coronavirus headlines are awaited.


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GBP/USD is trading above 1.2800 after hitting a new 2020, nearing the 1.2700 figure, as concerns about a no-trade-deal Brexit are weighing on the pound. Modest recovery seen in USD during the American session keeps the bearish pressure intact.


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Gold has been dropping sharply this Friday while reaching the 200 SMA on the four-hour chart. XAU/USD bulls gave up as sellers took the market down sharply. The bears seem to be in charge and more down could potentially be expected. 

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