Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro holds in narrow consolidation above strong supports at 1.1151/42 (lows of last Thu/Fri) and low of five-day pullback from 1.1341 (17 Mar peak), contained so far by Fibo 38.2% of 1.0820/1.1341 rally.
Bullish structure of daily technical has softened, however, near-term focus remains at the upside. Completion of corrective phase from 1.1341 needs initial signal on surge through hourly Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 1.1165 and 1.1183) and penetrated on early European trading and break above psychological 1200 barrier, reinforced by daily 10SMA. Further upside extension and close above 1218 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1341/1.1142), to signal higher low formation and reversal.
Near-term studies are in neutral mode and no stronger upside action could be expected while the price holds below hourly cloud top, also near-term consolidation range top.
On the other side, renewed dollar’s bulls, which resulted in pair’s bearish weekly close, keep the downside vulnerable, with attempts below 1.1143, expected to trigger fresh weakness towards 1.1080 (daily 30SMA / 50% retracement of 1.0820/1.1341 rally).
All eyes are on coming Friday’s US NFP data, which is expected to verify renewed bullish outlook for the dollar, on positive release, which is needed to confirm strengthening of US jobs sector.
Res: 1.1183; 1.1200; 1.1218; 1.1265
Sup: 1.1151; 1.1142; 1.1080; 1.1056
GBPUSD
Cable is attacking the upper boundary of near-term consolidation range at 1.4180, following last week’s sharp fall from 1.4512 to 1.4056 that left long bearish weekly candle. Pullback from 1.4512 upside rejection level, retraced over 61.8% of March’s 1.3834/1.4512 rally, after unsuccessful attempts to penetrate deeper into thick daily Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 1.4439 and 1.4657), which marks significant resistance.
As expected, the pair showed hesitation at key short-term support at 1.4051 (trough of 16 Mar, retested last Thursday). Recovery attempts and lift above 1.4180 (consolidation top / initial barrier, could generate basing signal, which needs confirmation on sustained lift above 1.4230 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.4512/1.4056 downleg.
Otherwise, expect prolonged consolidation, ahead of renewed attack at 1.4051 pivot, break of which would look for psychological 1.40 support and possible further bearish acceleration.
Bearish structure of daily studies supports this scenario.
Res: 1.4188; 1.4230; 1.4284; 1.4338
Sup: 1.4117; 1.4051; 1.4000; 1.3950
USDJPY
The pair extends ascend of the last week, on a rally to 113.66, session high, which lies above Fibo 76.4% of 114.43/110.65 downleg. Immediate downside risk, which was seen on a brief probe below critical 111 support zone, has been neutralized, as fresh strength now shifted focus towards the upper boundary of short-term congestion at 114.50 zone.
North-heading daily indicators and setup of daily MA’s, turning into bullish setup, maintains freshly established near-term bulls.
Daily 20SMA and hourly cloud top at 113.00 zone, offer good support, which is expected to ideally contain corrective dips, before fresh attempt higher.
Res: 113.66; 114.00; 114.43; 114.65
Sup : 113.30; 113.00; 112.50; 111.80
AUDUSD
Bearish close of the last week signals pause in strong recovery rally from 0.6825 low, which cracked significant 0.7651barrier (Fibo 61.8% of 0.8161/0.6825), but failed to close above it.
Pullback so far found footstep at 0.7475,contained by rising daily 20SMA and just above 0.7460 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7107/0.7678 upleg).
Current easing is seen as the fourth (corrective) wave, of five-wave rally from 0.6825, with fifth wave capable to travel to 0.7891 (which marks the length of the wave A from 0.6825 to 0.7241).
Res: 0.7543; 0.7647; 0.7685; 0.7750
Sup: 0.7491; 0.7460; 0.7412; 0.7392
The Euro holds in narrow consolidation above strong supports at 1.1151/42 (lows of last Thu/Fri) and low of five-day pullback from 1.1341 (17 Mar peak), contained so far by Fibo 38.2% of 1.0820/1.1341 rally.
Bullish structure of daily technical has softened, however, near-term focus remains at the upside. Completion of corrective phase from 1.1341 needs initial signal on surge through hourly Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 1.1165 and 1.1183) and penetrated on early European trading and break above psychological 1200 barrier, reinforced by daily 10SMA. Further upside extension and close above 1218 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1341/1.1142), to signal higher low formation and reversal.
Near-term studies are in neutral mode and no stronger upside action could be expected while the price holds below hourly cloud top, also near-term consolidation range top.
On the other side, renewed dollar’s bulls, which resulted in pair’s bearish weekly close, keep the downside vulnerable, with attempts below 1.1143, expected to trigger fresh weakness towards 1.1080 (daily 30SMA / 50% retracement of 1.0820/1.1341 rally).
All eyes are on coming Friday’s US NFP data, which is expected to verify renewed bullish outlook for the dollar, on positive release, which is needed to confirm strengthening of US jobs sector.
Res: 1.1183; 1.1200; 1.1218; 1.1265
Sup: 1.1151; 1.1142; 1.1080; 1.1056
GBPUSD
Cable is attacking the upper boundary of near-term consolidation range at 1.4180, following last week’s sharp fall from 1.4512 to 1.4056 that left long bearish weekly candle. Pullback from 1.4512 upside rejection level, retraced over 61.8% of March’s 1.3834/1.4512 rally, after unsuccessful attempts to penetrate deeper into thick daily Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 1.4439 and 1.4657), which marks significant resistance.
As expected, the pair showed hesitation at key short-term support at 1.4051 (trough of 16 Mar, retested last Thursday). Recovery attempts and lift above 1.4180 (consolidation top / initial barrier, could generate basing signal, which needs confirmation on sustained lift above 1.4230 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.4512/1.4056 downleg.
Otherwise, expect prolonged consolidation, ahead of renewed attack at 1.4051 pivot, break of which would look for psychological 1.40 support and possible further bearish acceleration.
Bearish structure of daily studies supports this scenario.
Res: 1.4188; 1.4230; 1.4284; 1.4338
Sup: 1.4117; 1.4051; 1.4000; 1.3950
USDJPY
The pair extends ascend of the last week, on a rally to 113.66, session high, which lies above Fibo 76.4% of 114.43/110.65 downleg. Immediate downside risk, which was seen on a brief probe below critical 111 support zone, has been neutralized, as fresh strength now shifted focus towards the upper boundary of short-term congestion at 114.50 zone.
North-heading daily indicators and setup of daily MA’s, turning into bullish setup, maintains freshly established near-term bulls.
Daily 20SMA and hourly cloud top at 113.00 zone, offer good support, which is expected to ideally contain corrective dips, before fresh attempt higher.
Res: 113.66; 114.00; 114.43; 114.65
Sup : 113.30; 113.00; 112.50; 111.80
AUDUSD
Bearish close of the last week signals pause in strong recovery rally from 0.6825 low, which cracked significant 0.7651barrier (Fibo 61.8% of 0.8161/0.6825), but failed to close above it.
Pullback so far found footstep at 0.7475,contained by rising daily 20SMA and just above 0.7460 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7107/0.7678 upleg).
Current easing is seen as the fourth (corrective) wave, of five-wave rally from 0.6825, with fifth wave capable to travel to 0.7891 (which marks the length of the wave A from 0.6825 to 0.7241).
Res: 0.7543; 0.7647; 0.7685; 0.7750
Sup: 0.7491; 0.7460; 0.7412; 0.7392
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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