EURUSD consolidates under 1.15 barrier; further upside favored

EURUSD


The Euro rallied overnight and finally broke above key short-term barriers at 1.1434/65, former tops of 18 June / 15 May, to complete bear-phase off 1.1434/65 double top that bottomed at 1.0807 on 20 July. Strong three-day rally from 1.1015, 18 Aug low that extended on today’s fresh bulls and came ticks away from psychological 1.15 barrier, also marks the third wave of ascend from 1.0844, 05 Aug low. The wave could travel to initial target at 1.1528, its 138.2% Fibonacci expansion, with further extension to look for 1.1615, Fibonacci 161.8% expansion. Strong bullish tone prevails on daily chart, supported by Friday’s close above 200SMA, together with long bullish candles of past two weeks. On the other side, overbought near-term technicals, suggest corrective action, on profit taking ahead of 1.15 barrier. Dips from 1.1497, session high and fresh 6-month high, so far hold above 1.14 handle, guarding hourly higher low at 1.1368 and 1.1313, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1015/1.1497 upleg, where next significant supports lay. Only reversal below former tops at 1.1215/12 and 1.1200, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, would neutralize near-term bulls.

Res: 1.1497; 1.1528; 1.1550; 1.1615
Sup: 1.1418; 1.1368; 1.1313; 1.1256








GBPUSD

Cable accelerated lower in early Monday trading, after last Friday’s repeated failure to sustain break above 1.57 barrier. Fresh attempts higher peaked at 1.5721, with Friday’s close below 1.57 handle and shaped in long-legged Doji, signaling hesitation at this resistance zone. However, bullish tone continues to dominate on daily chart, as the pair finally broke above short-term congestion tops, just under 1.57 hurdle, with bullish setup of daily studies, seeing current easing as corrective action, ahead of renewed attempts higher. Daily Tenkan-sen line, contained dips for now at 1.5628, guarding more significant 1.5605 level, daily 20SMA and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5423/1.5721 upleg. Break and close below here, would soften near-term tone and risk test of 1.5560 pivot, 18 Aug higher low / Daily Ichimoku cloud top. On the other side, sustained break above 1.57 zone, would open next target at 1.5786, 29 June lower top / Fibonacci 76.4% of larger 1.5928/1.5327 descend.

Res: 1.5688; 1.5721; 1.5750; 1.5786
Sup: 1.5628; 1.5605; 1.5560; 1.5537






USDJPY

The dollar extends steep descend vs yen that resulted in past three-day trading closing in red and Friday’s acceleration, ending in long bearish candle. Weekly close also occurred in red, signaling further weakness, after upside attempts failed to sustain gains above 125 barrier. Overnight’s fresh acceleration lower, confirms strong bearish stance, as the price dipped to 120.71 so far, where daily 200SMA lies, the sole obstacle en-route towards key short-term support and breakpoint at 120.39, low of 08 July and bottom of 120.39/125.26 range. Break here is needed to trigger further bears, with extension below psychological 120 support, expected to open former base at 118.50 zone. Setup of daily studies is firmly bearish and supports further weakness, however, oversold daily Stochastic and RSI at the border line, suggest hesitation on approach to strong 120.39 support. Corrective actions to face initial barrier at 122.01, session high, ahead of 122.45, Fibonacci 38.2% of 125.26/120.71 descend, where rallies should be ideally capped, to keep intact former breakpoint, now strong resistance at 123.00, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line.

Res: 122.01; 122.45; 123.00; 123.52
Sup: 120.71; 120.39; 120.00; 119.20






AUDUSD

The pair remains under pressure in the near-term, with overnight’s fresh weakness, eventually cracking psychological 0.72 support. Past two days close in red, as well as repeated weekly bearish close, maintain overall bearish tone, as the pair completed consolidative phase that was capped at 0.7435 on 11 Aug. Bearish setup of daily studies, favors further downside, with daily close below former target at 0.7204, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of multi-year 0.6007/1.1076 rally, required to confirm and look for next target, psychological 0.7000 support. Corrective bounces off fresh session low at 0.7199, face initial barriers at 0.7285, 20/21 Aug lows, ahead of session high at 0.7310 and last Friday’s high at 0.7358.

Res: 0.7285; 0.7310; 0.7356; 0.7406
Sup: 0.7199; 0.7150; 0.7100; 0.7050