Technical analysis: Will XAG/EUR quotes continue to decline?

Recommendation for silver euro: Sell

Sell Stop։  Below 21.2.

Stop Loss։ Above 23.2.

RSI։ Neutral.

MACD։ Buy.

MA(200)։ Sell.

Fractals։ Sell.

Parabolic SAR։ Sell.

Bollinger Bands։ Neutral.

Chart analysis

On the daily timeframe, XAGEUR: D1 broke down the triangle support line and the 220-day moving average line. A number of technical analysis indicators have generated signals for further decline. We do not rule out a bearish movement if XAGEUR: D1 falls below the last low: 21.2. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limitation is possible above the upper border of the triangle, upper Bollinger line, Parabolic signal, and the last upper fractal: 23.2. After opening a pending order, move the stop to the next fractal maximum following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a deal, can go to the four-hour chart and set a stop-loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (23.2) without activating the order (21.2), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.

Fundamental analysis

In this review, we propose to consider the instrument based on precious metals - "Silver against the euro". Will XAGEUR quotes continue to decline? A downward movement means that silver is getting cheaper and the euro is strengthening. The next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will take place on Thursday 22 July. A change in the 0% rate is not expected, but investors hope that the European regulator will comment on plans for a future tightening of its monetary policy. In particular, we can talk about limiting the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), which is 120 billion euros per month. It is now assumed that PEPP will last until March 2022. Earlier, the head of ECB Christine Lagarde expressed the opinion that this program can be transformed into a new format. Let's remind that inflation in the Eurozone in June amounted to 1.9% in annual terms and approached the target ECB level of 2%. It should be noted that the ECB's rhetoric may be influenced by the situation with the coronavirus in the European Union. Precious metals, including silver, weakened as the US dollar rose to a 3 and a half month high. Roughly half of the world's silver is consumed for industrial purposes. An additional negative for this metal may be a slowdown in industrial production growth amid the outbreak of a new strain of the Delta coronavirus in Asian countries, and especially in India. For the same reason, the demand for silverware and jewelry may decrease. Earlier, the Silver Institute and the consulting company Metals Focus predicted an increase in global demand for silver this year by 15.3% (1,033 million ounces) compared to 2020 (896.1 million ounces) - up to a maximum since 2015. At the same time, in their opinion, the world production of silver in 2021 will amount to 1,056.3 million ounces, which is 8% more than last year's level. Thus, even with an optimistic outlook for demand, the global surplus will remain for the 6th consecutive year at 23.3 million ounces.

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