GBPUSD minor support at 1.4210/05

Daily Forecast - 04 April 2016

GBPUSD Spot

GBPUSD minor support at 1.4210/05 but trend line support at 1.4145/40 is a buying opportunity with stops below 1.4105. A break lower is a sell signal & sees 1.4140 act as resistance to target 1.4100 then 4 week low at 1.4055/50.

Holding first support at 1.4210/05 targets 1.4255/60 then first resistance at 1.4275/80. A break above 1.4300 however signals further gains to 1.4325/30, perhaps as far as resistance at 1.4350/60.

USDJPY Spot

USDJPY getting oversold short term but any recovery is not expected to take the pair too far. First resistance at 112.10/20 but above here a selling opportunity at 112.50/60. Shorts need stops above 112.85.

Below last week's low at 111.56 keeps the pressure on for 111.36 & 111.20. If we continue lower look for February lows at 111.00/110.95 then important March lows at 110.65.

EURGBP Spot

EURGBP overbought short term but any weakness is a buying opportunity. Below 8000/7990 however risks a slide to important support at 7945/35. Try longs with stops below 7920. Failure to close above 7940 tonight would question whether Friday's breakout was a false.

A break above 8020 targets important longer term resistance at 8035/39. This is the most important resistance of the week. In fact on the longer term charts we have strong resistance again at 8065/70 so these are 2 important challenges which look unlikely to be beaten at this stage.

AUDUSD Spot

AUDUSD failure to hold above 7650 risks another slide to 7629/25 then minor support at 7600/7597. However if we continue lower today look for better support at 7580/70 & the best chance of a low for the day. Longs need stops below 7550.

Holding above 7665 keeps bulls in control this morning to re-target 7700/05 before last week's high at 7721. A break higher likely at some stage this week in the bull trend to target 7735/39 & longer term trend line resistance at 7755/60. A good chance of a high for the day if reached, but shorts would still be risky in the 2 & a half month bull trend.

EURUSD Spot

EURUSD outlook positive after last week's breakout with minor support at 1.1370/65 but better support again at 1.1330/25 is the most important of the day. Longs need stops below 1.1315 with further losses to target a buying opportunity at 1.1295/90. Longs need stops below 1.1270.

Minor resistance at 1.1400/10 but above here re-targets last week's high at 1.1434/37. If we continue higher in the bull trend as is likely this week, look for 1.1455/60 then important October highs at 1.1490/95. Just be aware that a break above 1.1515/20 signals further gains targeting 1.1550/60.

Gold Spot

Gold held March lows at 1209/08 for a good bounce to the important 1225 level & topped just below here. We must hold first support at 1216 to build a recovery today & re-target first resistance at 1225/26. It could be worth trying shorts with stops above 1230. A break higher however sees 1226/25 act as support to target a better selling opportunity at 1235/36. Shorts need stops above 1241.

Below 1216 is more negative for today & risks a slide to 1212 then a retest of important March lows at 1209/08. I would not be buying here today as risks grow for further losses to 1204 & perhaps as far as 1201/00.